27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

Austin vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result

Q2 Stadium, Austin
Referee: Jon Freemon
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Austin 3-3 San Diego.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Austin, 29% draw, 34% San Diego — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Austin at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Žan Kolmaničout: Oleksandr Svatok
36'
45'
🔁David Vazquezout: Cédric Bakambu
50'
⚽Aníbal Godoy
57'
⚽Mikkel Desler (OG)
64'
⚽Marcus Ingvartsenassist: Anders Dreyer
🔁Oleksandr Svatokout: Ilie Sánchez
65'
🔁Besard Sabovicout: Jorge Alastuey
65'
⚽Brandon Vazquezassist: Ervin Torres
73'
⚽Christian Ramirezassist: Jon Bell
82'
⚽Christian Ramirezassist: Jon Gallagher
86'
Christian Ramirez
87'
89'
🔁Ian Murphyout: Alejandro Alvarado Jr
89'
🔁Oscar Verhoevenout: Dagur Dan Þórhallsson
90+5'
🔁Aníbal Godoyout: Bryan Zamblé

Match stats — Austin vs San Diego

42%Possession58%
13Shots15
6On target5
4Corners1

Line-ups

Austin 3-4-3
  • 12D. LasG
  • 3M. DeslerD
  • 4B. Hines-IkeD
  • 15J. BellD
  • 17J. GallagherM
  • 38Ervin TorresM
  • 14B. ŠabovićM
  • 23Ž. KolmaničM
  • 11F. TorresF
  • 9B. VázquezF
  • 21C. RamirezF
Substitutes
  • 5O. SvatokD
  • 24Jorge AlastueyM
  • 22Chris ApplewhiteD
  • 32M. BurtonM
  • 35M. ĐorđevićD
  • 26Patrick CayelliM
  • 40E. LautaG
  • 6Ilie SánchezM
  • 25Stefan DobrijevicF
Coach: D. Arnaud
San Diego 3-4-3
  • 18D. FerreeG
  • 26M. DuahD
  • 25I. PilcherD
  • 32I. MurphyD
  • 33O. VerhoevenM
  • 6J. TverskovM
  • 20A. GodoyM
  • 5Kieran SargeantM
  • 10A. DreyerF
  • 7M. IngvartsenF
  • 19D. VazquezF
Substitutes
  • 97C. McVeyD
  • 94C. BakambuF
  • 70A. AlvaradoF
  • 3D. Þór­halls­sonD
  • 15P. SomaM
  • 77A. MightenF
  • 17O. SøeD
  • 16M. AlstrupG
  • 14B. B. ZambleF
Coach: Mikey Varas

Form going into Austin vs San Diego

Austin

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
  • D1-1Colorado Rapids10 September 2026
  • D1-1San Jose Earthquakes6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Portland Timbers30 August 2026

San Diego

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Inter Miami20 September 2026
  • L0-5Philadelphia Union14 September 2026
  • L2-3San Jose Earthquakes10 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Orlando City SC5 September 2026
  • W3-1Los Angeles Galaxy30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Austin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Austin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • San Diego conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • San Diego failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for San Diego had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Austin32810144159-1834
13San Diego32811135662-635

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Austin vs San Diego

  • 14 May 2026San Diego 5–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 1 June 2025San Diego 2–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 23 March 2025Austin 2–1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Austin and San Diego drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Austin at 37% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Aníbal Godoy 50' for San Diego, Mikkel Desler (own goal) 57' for San Diego, Marcus Ingvartsen 64' for San Diego, Brandon Vazquez 73' for Austin, Christian Ramirez 82' for Austin, Christian Ramirez 86' for Austin.

How the call on Austin v San Diego has moved

First published on 13 Sep at 39% / 31% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is San Diego's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Austin win37%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. San Diego win34%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.