Los Angeles Galaxy
vs
Colorado Rapids
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0 Colorado Rapids
The model makes it 38% Los Angeles Galaxy, 30% draw, 32% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Los Angeles Galaxy 1.43, Colorado Rapids 1.22.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Los Angeles Galaxy vs Colorado Rapids
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Los Angeles Galaxy wins, grey are draws, red are Colorado Rapids wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs Colorado Rapids
Los Angeles Galaxy
- D1-1Seattle Sounders13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps10 September 2026
- W2-1New England Revolution6 September 2026
- L1-3away to San Diego30 August 2026
- D2-2away to CF Montreal22 August 2026
Colorado Rapids
- W1-0CF Montreal13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Austin10 September 2026
- L0-3away to Columbus Crew5 September 2026
- W1-0Real Salt Lake30 August 2026
- L0-3away to San Diego23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 30 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Los Angeles Galaxy carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.43 for Colorado Rapids. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.22 for Colorado Rapids. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Los Angeles Galaxy rate 0.64 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Colorado Rapids rate 0.59 and 1.37.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Colorado Rapids, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Los Angeles Galaxy a 0% chance of the title and Colorado Rapids 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles Galaxy the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Los Angeles Galaxy against 1.22 for Colorado Rapids. Los Angeles Galaxy's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.37 for Colorado Rapids.