Regular Season - 3 · 14 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Stellenbosch vs Marumo Gallants Premier Soccer League prediction

Danie Craven Stadium, Stellenbosch

The model makes it 41% Stellenbosch, 31% draw, 28% Marumo Gallants — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Stellenbosch 1.15, Marumo Gallants 0.90.

Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

41%
Both teams to score
34%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 14%1-1 14%0-0 14%

Form going into this match

Stellenbosch

  • L0-1Amazulu1 August 2026

Marumo Gallants

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

Premier Soccer League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Stellenbosch100101-10

Where they stand. Marumo Gallants has not started the league season yet. Full tables

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Stellenbosch carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.08 for Marumo Gallants. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

Recent form (most recent last): Stellenbosch L.

The model expects a tight, low-scoring game

Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Stellenbosch and 0.90 for Marumo Gallants. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Stellenbosch rate 0.33 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Marumo Gallants rate 0.38 and 1.84.

That points to 34% for over two and a half goals and 41% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Stellenbosch the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Stellenbosch against 0.9 for Marumo Gallants. Stellenbosch's attack/defence rating is 0.33/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/1.84 for Marumo Gallants.