Holstein Kiel
vs
1. FC Kaiserslautern
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Holstein Kiel 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern
The model makes it 33% Holstein Kiel, 32% draw, 35% 1. FC Kaiserslautern — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Holstein Kiel 0.98, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.03.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Kaiserslautern are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Holstein Kiel's rating is built from 45 2. Bundesliga matches and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.
Key facts
- Holstein Kiel are bottom on 8 points from 11 games; 1. FC Kaiserslautern are 3rd on 21 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Holstein Kiel have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Arminia Bielefeld.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to VfL Osnabrück.
- Last 6 meetings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 April 2026, ended Holstein Kiel 3–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Has the model earned this number?
1. FC Kaiserslautern at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga
- L1-2Arminia Bielefeld7 November 2026
- L0-1away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth1 November 2026
- W3-0Dynamo Dresden25 October 2026
- D0-0Hertha BSC16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Eintracht Braunschweig9 October 2026
1. FC Kaiserslautern
2. Bundesliga
- W1-0away to VfL Osnabrück7 November 2026
- L0-3Hertha BSC31 October 2026
- W1-0away to 1. FC Nürnberg24 October 2026
- W2-0VfL Bochum17 October 2026
- D0-0away to 1. FC Heidenheim9 October 2026
What these results say
- Holstein Kiel failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for 1. FC Kaiserslautern had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 8 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Holstein Kiel
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 21% today
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Chance to finish in the top two · 13% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
- 17 April 2026Holstein Kiel 3–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 23 November 20251. FC Kaiserslautern 4–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 27 April 2024Holstein Kiel 1–3 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 26 November 2023FC Kaiserslautern 0–3 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 4 February 2023FC Kaiserslautern 2–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 23 July 2022Holstein Kiel 2–2 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres53
1. FC Kaiserslautern
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Holstein Kiel a 0% chance of the title and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Holstein Kiel against 1.03 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Holstein Kiel's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/0.99 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
How the model reaches 35% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Holstein Kiel's ratings add 4 points and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−2
- Holstein Kiel's ratings33%+4
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern's ratings35%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Holstein Kiel at home · 1. FC Kaiserslautern away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Holstein Kiel1. FC Kaiserslautern
Holstein Kiel are 18th after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 18th so far); 1. FC Kaiserslautern are 3rd after 11 (between 3rd and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Holstein Kiel 11, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 11.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Holstein Kiel
- at Karlsruher SC5 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
- vs Hannover 9612 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
- at Energie Cottbus18 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
- vs VfL Bochum16 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth5 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 49%
- at Arminia Bielefeld11 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
- at Hannover 9620 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- vs Energie Cottbus17 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.