AVS
vs
Leixoes
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: AVS 2–1 Leixoes
The model makes it 52% AVS, 23% draw, 25% Leixoes — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: AVS 2.13, Leixoes 1.32.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. AVS's rating is built from 10 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Leixoes's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- AVS are 11th on 13 points from 10 games; Leixoes are 12th on 11 points from 10 games — Segunda Liga.
- AVS have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Vizela.
- Leixoes have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Felgueiras 1932.
- Last 2 meetings: Leixoes 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 May 2024, ended Leixoes 0–0 AVS.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AVS vs Leixoes
Has the model earned this number?
AVS at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AVS vs Leixoes
AVS
Segunda Liga
- D2-2Vizela6 November 2026
- L1-2away to União de Leiria31 October 2026
- W2-1Tondela25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Penafiel9 October 2026
- D0-0Farense13 September 2026
Leixoes
Segunda Liga
- D3-3away to Felgueiras 19327 November 2026
- L1-2Sporting CP B31 October 2026
- L0-4away to Academica24 October 2026
- L1-2FC Porto B10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Torreense11 September 2026
What these results say
- AVS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AVS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AVS had three goals or more.
- Leixoes did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Leixoes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leixoes had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AVS | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 | Leixoes | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
AVS
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
Leixoes
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: AVS vs Leixoes
- 12 May 2024Leixoes 0–0 AVSSegunda Liga
- 7 January 2024AVS 1–3 LeixoesSegunda Liga
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AVS a 0.9% chance of the title and Leixoes 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AVS the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for AVS against 1.32 for Leixoes. AVS's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.95 for Leixoes.
How the model reaches 52% for AVS to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AVS to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, AVS's ratings add 2 points and Leixoes's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- AVS's ratings48%+2
- Leixoes's ratings52%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
AVS at home · Leixoes away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: AVS 10, Leixoes 10.
AVS score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Leixoes have let in 2 there.
Leixoes score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); AVS have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
AVS
- at Benfica B2 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 22%
- at Amarante8 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 34%
- vs Portimonense13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 48%
- at Academica20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 27%
- vs FC Porto B27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 47%
Leixoes
- vs Feirense4 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 49%
- at Penafiel12 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 18%
- vs Farense20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 41%
- at Vizela27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 27%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.