Bucheon FC 1995
vs
Jeonbuk Motors
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 40% Bucheon FC 1995, 31% draw, 29% Jeonbuk Motors — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bucheon FC 1995 1.15, Jeonbuk Motors 0.92.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Bucheon FC 1995
- D0-0Gwangju FC8 August 2026
- W3-0away to Gangwon FC1 August 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United26 July 2026
- L2-3FC Anyang22 July 2026
- L1-3FC Seoul19 July 2026
Jeonbuk Motors
- L1-3Jeju United FC8 August 2026
- D0-0FC Seoul1 August 2026
- W2-0away to Pohang Steelers25 July 2026
- D0-0Daejeon Citizen21 July 2026
- L0-1away to Incheon United18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 24 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Bucheon FC 1995
No league goals recorded yet.
Jeonbuk Motors
- Lee Seung-Woo3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bucheon FC 1995 carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.59 for Jeonbuk Motors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Bucheon FC 1995 L-L-D-W-D; Jeonbuk Motors L-D-W-D-L.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 0.92 for Jeonbuk Motors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bucheon FC 1995 rate 0.70 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeonbuk Motors rate 0.39 and 0.87.
That points to 34% for over two and a half goals and 42% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jeonbuk Motors, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 0% chance of the title and Jeonbuk Motors 1.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucheon FC 1995 the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 against 0.92 for Jeonbuk Motors. Bucheon FC 1995's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/0.87 for Jeonbuk Motors.