Incheon United
vs
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 57% Incheon United, 24% draw, 19% Gimcheon Sangmu FC — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Incheon United 1.81, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.94.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Incheon United
- D3-3away to Jeju United FC2 August 2026
- D1-1Bucheon FC 199526 July 2026
- W2-1away to Ulsan Hyundai FC21 July 2026
- W1-0Jeonbuk Motors18 July 2026
- L0-1FC Anyang12 July 2026
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- D0-0FC Seoul8 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pohang Steelers1 August 2026
- W3-2Daejeon Citizen25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Gwangju FC22 July 2026
- L0-2away to Gangwon FC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Incheon United | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 24 | +4 | 29 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 22 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Incheon United
- S. Mugoša7 goals
- M. Ferrier4 goals
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Go Jae-Hyeon3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Incheon United carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.45 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Incheon United L-W-W-D-D; Gimcheon Sangmu FC L-D-W-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Incheon United and 0.94 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Incheon United rate 0.68 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimcheon Sangmu FC rate 0.63 and 1.41.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Incheon United the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Incheon United against 0.94 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Incheon United's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.41 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC.