Gent
vs
OH Leuven
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 66% Gent, 20% draw, 14% OH Leuven — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Gent 2.26, OH Leuven 0.98.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gent
- W2-1away to RAAL La Louvière16 August 2026
- W2-0KV Mechelen9 August 2026
OH Leuven
- L0-3Club Brugge KV15 August 2026
- L1-3away to Charleroi9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gent | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 17 | OH Leuven | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Gent vs OH Leuven
- 7 February 2026Gent 1–3 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 2 November 2025OH Leuven 4–0 GentJupiler Pro League
- 26 January 2025OH Leuven 0–0 GentJupiler Pro League
- 29 September 2024Gent 3–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 12 May 2024Gent 0–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 14 April 2024OH Leuven 2–1 GentJupiler Pro League
The two sides
Gent carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.69 for OH Leuven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gent W-W; OH Leuven L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.26 goals for Gent and 0.98 for OH Leuven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gent rate 1.02 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OH Leuven rate 0.85 and 1.17.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 463 correct results out of 963 settled predictions (48%), with 90 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gent the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Gent against 0.98 for OH Leuven. Gent's attack/defence rating is 1.02/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.17 for OH Leuven.