Kilmarnock
vs
St Mirren
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 38% Kilmarnock, 26% draw, 36% St Mirren — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kilmarnock 1.43, St Mirren 1.39.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kilmarnock
- L1-5Celtic9 August 2026
- L3-4away to St Johnstone2 August 2026
St Mirren
- W1-0St Johnstone8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Falkirk1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 |
| 2 | St Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs St Mirren
- 9 May 2026St Mirren 0–3 KilmarnockPremiership
- 11 February 2026Kilmarnock 4–3 St MirrenPremiership
- 27 December 2025St Mirren 0–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 4 October 2025Kilmarnock 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 19 September 2025Kilmarnock 2–2 St MirrenLeague Cup
- 29 March 2025St Mirren 5–1 KilmarnockPremiership
Leading scorers
Kilmarnock
No league goals recorded yet.
St Mirren
- K. Phillips3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kilmarnock carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.58 for St Mirren. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Kilmarnock L-L; St Mirren W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.39 for St Mirren. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kilmarnock rate 0.74 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St Mirren rate 0.55 and 1.02.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour St Mirren, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 941 settled predictions (48%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kilmarnock the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Kilmarnock against 1.39 for St Mirren. Kilmarnock's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.02 for St Mirren.