Motherwell
vs
Dundee United
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 54% Motherwell, 24% draw, 22% Dundee United — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Motherwell 1.89, Dundee United 1.14.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Motherwell
- D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian2 August 2026
Dundee United
- L0-4away to Heart of Midlothian9 August 2026
- D1-1Rangers31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 11 | Dundee United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Dundee United
- 28 February 2026Motherwell 2–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 13 December 2025Dundee United 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 29 October 2025Motherwell 2–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 22 February 2025Dundee United 1–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 14 December 2024Motherwell 4–3 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 30 October 2024Dundee United 1–2 MotherwellPremiership
Leading scorers
Motherwell
No league goals recorded yet.
Dundee United
- L. Rose1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Motherwell carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.16 for Dundee United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Motherwell W-D; Dundee United D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Motherwell and 1.14 for Dundee United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motherwell rate 0.53 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dundee United rate 0.47 and 1.89.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 941 settled predictions (48%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Motherwell the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Motherwell against 1.14 for Dundee United. Motherwell's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.89 for Dundee United.