Aberdeen
vs
St Mirren
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Aberdeen 1–0 St Mirren
The model makes it 43% Aberdeen, 30% draw, 27% St Mirren — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aberdeen 1.43, St Mirren 0.93.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Aberdeen are 7th on 8 points from 7 games; St Mirren are 5th on 10 points from 7 games — Premiership.
- Aberdeen are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Hibernian.
- St Mirren are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Dundee United.
- Last 6 meetings: St Mirren 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 May 2026, ended Aberdeen 0–2 St Mirren.
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Aberdeen vs St Mirren
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aberdeen at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aberdeen vs St Mirren
Aberdeen
- D1-1away to Hibernian19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Motherwell15 September 2026
- D0-0Kilmarnock5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Celtic2 September 2026
- L0-1Rangers30 August 2026
St Mirren
- L0-3Dundee United19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers9 September 2026
- L1-2Celtic5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Kilmarnock2 September 2026
- D3-3Motherwell30 August 2026
What these results say
- Aberdeen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Mirren failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Mirren conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aberdeen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 5 | St Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs St Mirren
- 12 May 2026Aberdeen 0–2 St MirrenPremiership
- 4 April 2026St Mirren 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 3 December 2025Aberdeen 3–3 St MirrenPremiership
- 18 October 2025St Mirren 0–1 AberdeenPremiership
- 3 May 2025St Mirren 1–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 25 January 2025Aberdeen 0–3 St MirrenPremiership
Leading scorers: Aberdeen and St Mirren
Aberdeen
- K. Nisbet3 goals2 assists
St Mirren
- K. Phillips3 goals
- Samu1 goal2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aberdeen carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.27 for St Mirren. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Aberdeen and 0.93 for St Mirren. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aberdeen rate 0.55 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St Mirren rate 0.47 and 1.55.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour St Mirren, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aberdeen a 0% chance of the title and St Mirren 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aberdeen the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Aberdeen against 0.93 for St Mirren. Aberdeen's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.55 for St Mirren.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aberdeen at home · St Mirren away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Aberdeen 7, St Mirren 7.
Aberdeen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); St Mirren have let in 2 there.
St Mirren score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Aberdeen have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Aberdeen
- at Dundee United24 Oct · Premiershipwin 32%
- vs Falkirk28 Oct · Premiershipwin 40%
- at Rangers31 Oct · Premiershipwin 19%
- vs Hibernian7 Nov · Premiershipwin 37%
St Mirren
- vs Dundee24 Oct · Premiershipwin 35%
- vs Hibernian28 Oct · Premiershipwin 33%
- at Motherwell31 Oct · Premiershipwin 24%
- vs Rangers7 Nov · Premiershipwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.