União de Leiria
vs
Academica
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: União de Leiria 2–1 Academica
The model makes it 52% União de Leiria, 24% draw, 24% Academica — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: União de Leiria 2.53, Academica 1.36.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- União de Leiria are 6th on 10 points from 6 games; Academica are 8th on 9 points from 6 games — Segunda Liga.
- União de Leiria are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Amarante.
- Academica are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Benfica B.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 12 July 2024, ended Academica 0–0 União de Leiria.
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: União de Leiria vs Academica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts União de Leiria at 52% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into União de Leiria vs Academica
União de Leiria
- D2-2away to Amarante13 September 2026
- W1-0Portimonense6 September 2026
- W2-0Tondela28 August 2026
- W4-2away to Leixoes22 August 2026
- L1-2Benfica B15 August 2026
Academica
- L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Penafiel5 September 2026
- L0-2Lusitânia Lourosa29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Tondela21 August 2026
- W1-0Feirense14 August 2026
What these results say
- União de Leiria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | União de Leiria | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Academica | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: União de Leiria vs Academica
- 12 July 2024Academica 0–0 União de LeiriaFriendlies Clubs
- 15 January 2023Academica 1–3 União de LeiriaLiga 3
- 3 September 2022União de Leiria 1–1 AcademicaLiga 3
- 20 January 2012Academica 0–0 União de LeiriaPrimeira Liga
- 15 August 2011União de Leiria 1–2 AcademicaPrimeira Liga
- 4 March 2011Academica 0–0 União de LeiriaPrimeira Liga
The two sides
União de Leiria carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.33 for Academica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for União de Leiria and 1.36 for Academica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
União de Leiria rate 0.82 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Academica rate 0.66 and 1.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives União de Leiria a 8% chance of the title and Academica 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives União de Leiria the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for União de Leiria against 1.36 for Academica. União de Leiria's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.9 for Academica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
União de Leiria at home · Academica away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: União de Leiria 6, Academica 6.
União de Leiria score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Academica have let in 1 there.
Academica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); União de Leiria have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
União de Leiria
- at FC Porto B25 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 34%
- vs AVS31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 39%
- at Torreense9 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 27%
- vs Sporting CP B15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 45%
- at Farense28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
Academica
- vs Leixoes24 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Vizela1 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 26%
- vs Amarante7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 42%
- at Portimonense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 29%
- vs Torreense30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.