Bournemouth
vs
Everton
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 59% Bournemouth, 21% draw, 20% Everton — fair odds of 1.69, 4.76 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Bournemouth 2.18, Everton 1.23.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Everton
- 10 February 2026Everton 1–2 BournemouthPremier League
- 2 December 2025Bournemouth 0–1 EvertonPremier League
- 26 July 2025Everton 0–3 BournemouthPremier League - Summer Series
- 8 February 2025Everton 0–2 BournemouthFA Cup
- 4 January 2025Bournemouth 1–0 EvertonPremier League
- 31 August 2024Everton 2–3 BournemouthPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bournemouth carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.89 for Everton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Bournemouth and 1.23 for Everton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bournemouth rate 1.19 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Everton rate 1.05 and 0.97.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bournemouth the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Bournemouth against 1.23 for Everton. Bournemouth's attack/defence rating is 1.19/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/0.97 for Everton.