Regular Season - 9 · 14 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Zemun vs Radnik Surdulica Super Liga prediction & result

Zemun Stadium, Belgrade
Full time1 1

Final score: Zemun 1-1 Radnik Surdulica.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Zemun, 30% draw, 28% Radnik Surdulica — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Zemun 1.52, Radnik Surdulica 1.04.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Zemun vs Radnik Surdulica

51%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 11%2-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zemun at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Vukasin Bogdanovic
Đorđe Petrović
17'
Uros Lazic (OG)
29'
🔁Mladen Živkovićout: Marko Knezevic
40'
45'
🔁Luka Jovanovićout: Emmanuel Quarshie
🔁nemanja belakovicout: Godswill Vadze
45'
🔁Marko Saricout: novak petrusic
58'
🔁Dimitrije Tabakovićout: nemanja kalat
64'
🔁Đorđe Petrovićout: Uros Ljubomirac
64'
65'
🔁Aleksandar Pejovićout: Ayouba Kosiah
67'
Martin Novakovic
sasa knezevic
74'
79'
🔁Vukasin Bogdanovicout: Luka Žorić
79'
🔁Djordje Jovanovicout: Ryonosuke Ohori
Aleksandar kadijevic
80'
81'
Uros Lazic
82'
Luka Žorić
87'
Ayouba Kosiah
87'
Ayouba Kosiah

Match stats — Zemun vs Radnik Surdulica

31%Possession69%
9Shots24
2On target7
1Corners7

Line-ups

Zemun 4-1-4-1
  • 89M. ŽivkovićG
  • 11S. KnezevicD
  • 21I. OstojićD
  • 66V. BakićD
  • 88A. KadijevićD
  • 32M. MeskhiM
  • 7Dimitrije TabakovićM
  • 8O. IlićM
  • 20D. PetrovicM
  • 10N. BelakovićM
  • 45M. ŠarićF
Substitutes
  • 6Z. BogdanovicM
  • 23M. JokićM
  • 31N. KalatM
  • 1M. KneževićG
  • 27U. LjubomiracM
  • 29A. MilosevicD
  • 25D. ParađinaD
  • 9N. PetrusicF
  • 16M. SpremoD
Coach: Milan Kuljic
Radnik Surdulica 4-2-3-1
  • 23Lazar RadojicicG
  • 22U. LazićD
  • 6David StojanovićD
  • 37S. AbubakarD
  • 2Tijan SohnaD
  • 5M. PopovićM
  • 28A. PejovićM
  • 20L. JovanovicM
  • 30M. NovakovićM
  • 88Đ. JovanovićM
  • 9V. BogdanovićF
Substitutes
  • 45Rafael SilvaD
  • 1F. SamurovićG
  • 7D. StojanovićM
  • 3Luka ŽorićD
  • 10Ryonosuke OhoriM
  • 47Emmanuel QuarshieF
  • 25Teo LakićF
  • 92A. KosiahF
  • 14Uroš IlićD
Coach: Zoran Rendulic

Form going into Zemun vs Radnik Surdulica

Zemun

  • L1-2away to Vojvodina6 September 2026
  • L0-2FK Crvena Zvezda30 August 2026
  • L0-1away to OFK Beograd22 August 2026
  • L0-1Mladost Lucani16 August 2026

Radnik Surdulica

  • D0-0FK Crvena Zvezda10 September 2026
  • W3-1Cukaricki5 September 2026
  • L1-5away to Železničar Pančevo29 August 2026
  • W1-0Novi Pazar23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Zemun9027417-132
5Radnik Surdulica93421011-113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zemun vs Radnik Surdulica

  • 14 September 2026Zemun 1–1 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 8 March 2025Zemun 2–1 Radnik SurdulicaPrva Liga
  • 6 October 2024Radnik Surdulica 1–1 ZemunPrva Liga
  • 23 July 2024Radnik Surdulica 2–0 ZemunFriendlies Clubs
  • 11 May 2019Zemun 2–1 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 1 December 2018Zemun 0–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga

Leading scorers: Zemun and Radnik Surdulica

Zemun

No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Radnik Surdulica

  • V. Bogdanović3 goals
  • M. Novaković2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.52 goals for Zemun and 1.04 for Radnik Surdulica; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Uros Lazic 29' (Zemun), Martin Novakovic 67' (Radnik Surdulica).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Zemun the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Zemun against 1.04 for Radnik Surdulica. Zemun's attack/defence rating is 0.37/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.52 for Radnik Surdulica.