Zemun
vs
Radnik Surdulica
Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: Zemun 1-1 Radnik Surdulica.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Zemun, 30% draw, 28% Radnik Surdulica — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Zemun 1.52, Radnik Surdulica 1.04.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Zemun vs Radnik Surdulica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zemun at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zemun vs Radnik Surdulica
Line-ups
- 89M. ŽivkovićG
- 11S. KnezevicD
- 21I. OstojićD
- 66V. BakićD
- 88A. KadijevićD
- 32M. MeskhiM
- 7Dimitrije TabakovićM
- 8O. IlićM
- 20D. PetrovicM
- 10N. BelakovićM
- 45M. ŠarićF
- 6Z. BogdanovicM
- 23M. JokićM
- 31N. KalatM
- 1M. KneževićG
- 27U. LjubomiracM
- 29A. MilosevicD
- 25D. ParađinaD
- 9N. PetrusicF
- 16M. SpremoD
- 23Lazar RadojicicG
- 22U. LazićD
- 6David StojanovićD
- 37S. AbubakarD
- 2Tijan SohnaD
- 5M. PopovićM
- 28A. PejovićM
- 20L. JovanovicM
- 30M. NovakovićM
- 88Đ. JovanovićM
- 9V. BogdanovićF
- 45Rafael SilvaD
- 1F. SamurovićG
- 7D. StojanovićM
- 3Luka ŽorićD
- 10Ryonosuke OhoriM
- 47Emmanuel QuarshieF
- 25Teo LakićF
- 92A. KosiahF
- 14Uroš IlićD
Form going into Zemun vs Radnik Surdulica
Zemun
- L1-2away to Vojvodina6 September 2026
- L0-2FK Crvena Zvezda30 August 2026
- L0-1away to OFK Beograd22 August 2026
- L0-1Mladost Lucani16 August 2026
Radnik Surdulica
- D0-0FK Crvena Zvezda10 September 2026
- W3-1Cukaricki5 September 2026
- L1-5away to Železničar Pančevo29 August 2026
- W1-0Novi Pazar23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Zemun | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 2 |
| 5 | Radnik Surdulica | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zemun vs Radnik Surdulica
- 14 September 2026Zemun 1–1 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 8 March 2025Zemun 2–1 Radnik SurdulicaPrva Liga
- 6 October 2024Radnik Surdulica 1–1 ZemunPrva Liga
- 23 July 2024Radnik Surdulica 2–0 ZemunFriendlies Clubs
- 11 May 2019Zemun 2–1 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 1 December 2018Zemun 0–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Zemun and Radnik Surdulica
Zemun
No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Radnik Surdulica
- V. Bogdanović3 goals
- M. Novaković2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.52 goals for Zemun and 1.04 for Radnik Surdulica; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Uros Lazic 29' (Zemun), Martin Novakovic 67' (Radnik Surdulica).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zemun the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Zemun against 1.04 for Radnik Surdulica. Zemun's attack/defence rating is 0.37/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.52 for Radnik Surdulica.