Hannover 96
vs
Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 45% Hannover 96, 23% draw, 32% Karlsruher SC — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hannover 96 1.87, Karlsruher SC 1.57.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hannover 96
- L0-1VfL Wolfsburg16 August 2026
- L1-3away to Energie Cottbus9 August 2026
Karlsruher SC
- D0-0away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern15 August 2026
- W2-1Arminia Bielefeld8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hannover 96 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 3 | Karlsruher SC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Hannover 96 vs Karlsruher SC
- 25 April 2026Karlsruher SC 1–3 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
- 28 November 2025Hannover 96 3–0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 4 April 2025Karlsruher SC 1–0 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
- 2 November 2024Hannover 96 2–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 12 May 2024Karlsruher SC 1–2 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
- 8 December 2023Hannover 96 2–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers
Hannover 96
No league goals recorded yet.
Karlsruher SC
- M. Broschinski2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hannover 96 carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.96 for Karlsruher SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Hannover 96 L-L; Karlsruher SC W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Hannover 96 and 1.57 for Karlsruher SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hannover 96 rate 1.11 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Karlsruher SC rate 1.12 and 0.89.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Karlsruher SC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hannover 96 the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Hannover 96 against 1.57 for Karlsruher SC. Hannover 96's attack/defence rating is 1.11/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.89 for Karlsruher SC.