Başakşehir vs Galatasaray Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Başakşehir 2-3 Galatasaray.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Başakşehir, 27% draw, 34% Galatasaray — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Başakşehir at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Başakşehir vs Galatasaray
Line-ups
- 98D. DilmenG
- 42Ö. ŞahinerD
- 23E. BayramD
- 3J. OpokuD
- 21C. OperiD
- 18J. KałuzińskiM
- 20U. GüneşM
- 70A. Skov OlsenM
- 8O. KemenM
- 11A. FayzullaevM
- 14E. ShomurodovF
- 91B. YıldırımF
- 9D. SelkeF
- 7Y. SarıF
- 19B. ÖzcanM
- 38S. KharebashviliD
- 33M. KarbownikD
- 77I. BrnićF
- 17U. BozokF
- 27O. BaD
- 1U. ÇakırG
- 7R. SallaiD
- 6D. SánchezD
- 99M. LeminaD
- 4I. JakobsD
- 34L. TorreiraM
- 8Gabriel SaraM
- 11Y. AkgünM
- 83A. BatrakovM
- 10L. SanéM
- 45V. OsimhenF
- 18L. UgochukwuM
- 23K. AyhanD
- 53B. YılmazF
- 42A. BardakcıD
- 74Renato NhagaM
- 17E. ElmalıD
- 21D. GülF
- 20İ. GündoğanM
- 24J. YılmazG
Form going into Başakşehir vs Galatasaray
Başakşehir
- D1-1Kasımpaşa30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Trabzonspor23 August 2026
- W2-0Kocaelispor16 August 2026
Galatasaray
- W3-2Göztepe29 August 2026
- W4-0away to Erzurumspor FK21 August 2026
- D2-2Çorum FK14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Başakşehir | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 1 | Galatasaray | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Galatasaray
- 4 September 2026Başakşehir 2–3 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 14 March 2026Galatasaray 3–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 18 December 2025Galatasaray 1–0 BaşakşehirTürkiye Kupası
- 18 October 2025Başakşehir 1–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 30 May 2025Galatasaray 2–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 12 January 2025Başakşehir 1–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig
Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Galatasaray
Başakşehir
- E. Shomurodov4 goals
Galatasaray
- V. Osimhen6 goals2 assists
- Gabriel Sara2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.