4 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Başakşehir vs Galatasaray Süper Lig prediction & result

Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Istanbul
Full time2 3

Final score: Başakşehir 2-3 Galatasaray.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Başakşehir, 27% draw, 34% Galatasaray — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Başakşehir at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
Victor Osimhenassist: Lucas Torreira
17'
Victor Osimhen
33'
🔁Victor Osimhenout: Baris Alper Yilmaz
Christopher Operi
37'
45'
🔁Mario Leminaout: Abdulkerim Bardakçı
🔁Christopher Operiout: Saba Kharebashvili
63'
63'
Roland Sallai
Eldor Shomurodov (pen)
66'
67'
Davinson Sánchez
67'
Okan Buruk
68'
🔁Aleksey Batrakovout: Rafael Leão
71'
Lucas Torreiraassist: Ismail Jakobs
🔁Abbosbek Fayzullaevout: Ivan Brnic
74'
🔁Jakub Kaluzinskiout: Umut Bozok
74'
Davinson Sánchez (OG)
76'
78'
Rafael Leão
Umut Bozok
79'
🔁Andreas Skov Olsenout: Ousseynou Ba
83'
🔁Ömer Ali Şahinerout: Michal Karbownik
83'
83'
🔁Ismail Jakobsout: Eren Elmalı
83'
🔁Leroy Sanéout: Deniz Gül
83'
Davinson Sánchez
Saba Kharebashvili
89'
90'
Gabriel
Nuri Şahin
90+8'

Match stats — Başakşehir vs Galatasaray

48%Possession52%
12Shots13
3On target6
6Corners5

Line-ups

Başakşehir 4-2-3-1
  • 98D. DilmenG
  • 42Ö. ŞahinerD
  • 23E. BayramD
  • 3J. OpokuD
  • 21C. OperiD
  • 18J. KałuzińskiM
  • 20U. GüneşM
  • 70A. Skov OlsenM
  • 8O. KemenM
  • 11A. FayzullaevM
  • 14E. ShomurodovF
Substitutes
  • 91B. YıldırımF
  • 9D. SelkeF
  • 7Y. SarıF
  • 19B. ÖzcanM
  • 38S. KharebashviliD
  • 33M. KarbownikD
  • 77I. BrnićF
  • 17U. BozokF
  • 27O. BaD
Coach: N. Şahin
Galatasaray 4-2-3-1
  • 1U. ÇakırG
  • 7R. SallaiD
  • 6D. SánchezD
  • 99M. LeminaD
  • 4I. JakobsD
  • 34L. TorreiraM
  • 8Gabriel SaraM
  • 11Y. AkgünM
  • 83A. BatrakovM
  • 10L. SanéM
  • 45V. OsimhenF
Substitutes
  • 18L. UgochukwuM
  • 23K. AyhanD
  • 53B. YılmazF
  • 42A. BardakcıD
  • 74Renato NhagaM
  • 17E. ElmalıD
  • 21D. GülF
  • 20İ. GündoğanM
  • 24J. YılmazG
Coach: O. Buruk

Form going into Başakşehir vs Galatasaray

Başakşehir

  • D1-1Kasımpaşa30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Trabzonspor23 August 2026
  • W2-0Kocaelispor16 August 2026

Galatasaray

  • W3-2Göztepe29 August 2026
  • W4-0away to Erzurumspor FK21 August 2026
  • D2-2Çorum FK14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Başakşehir5113611-54
1Galatasaray5410136+713

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Galatasaray

  • 4 September 2026Başakşehir 2–3 GalatasaraySüper Lig
  • 14 March 2026Galatasaray 3–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • 18 December 2025Galatasaray 1–0 BaşakşehirTürkiye Kupası
  • 18 October 2025Başakşehir 1–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig
  • 30 May 2025Galatasaray 2–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • 12 January 2025Başakşehir 1–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig

Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Galatasaray

Başakşehir

  • E. Shomurodov4 goals

Galatasaray

  • V. Osimhen6 goals2 assists
  • Gabriel Sara2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.