Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 FC St. Pauli.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Arminia Bielefeld, 29% draw, 38% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC St. Pauli at 38% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. KerskenG
- 7H. KoudossouD
- 5M. BauerD
- 19M. GrosserD
- 17A. SickerD
- 21S. RussoM
- 14M. MomuluhM
- 6M. MehlemM
- 38M. WorlM
- 10J. RocheltM
- 11J. GrodowskiF
- 18L. OppermannG
- 3J. FelixD
- 29T. HandwerkerD
- 8S. SchreckM
- 31L. JensenM
- 42T. WegenerM
- 30I. YoungF
- 9D. MinF
- 27B. BoakyeF
- 1B. VollG
- 4D. NemethD
- 6M. MathisenD
- 15T. AndoD
- 11A. PyrkaM
- 20M. RasmussenM
- 8E. SmithM
- 23L. OppieM
- 10B. HrgotaF
- 18T. HaraF
- 19M. KaarsF
- 33D. MitovG
- 25A. DzwigalaD
- 21L. RitzkaD
- 22S. KleinM
- 24C. MetcalfeM
- 14E. AhlstrandM
- 16J. FujitaM
- 9A. CeesayF
- 7Y. NiangF
Form going into Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli
Arminia Bielefeld
- L1-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg29 August 2026
- W3-0Energie Cottbus16 August 2026
FC St. Pauli
- L1-21. FC Kaiserslautern30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli
- 29 April 2023FC St. Pauli 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 22 October 2022Arminia Bielefeld 2–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 21 December 2019FC St. Pauli 3–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 29 July 2019Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 14 April 2019FC St. Pauli 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 4 November 2018Arminia Bielefeld 1–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli
Arminia Bielefeld
- J. Grodowski5 goals
FC St. Pauli
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.