Arminia Bielefeld
vs
FC St. Pauli
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 69% Arminia Bielefeld, 17% draw, 14% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 1.45, 5.88 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Arminia Bielefeld 2.78, FC St. Pauli 1.23.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Arminia Bielefeld
- W3-0Energie Cottbus16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Karlsruher SC8 August 2026
FC St. Pauli
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel14 August 2026
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 13 | FC St. Pauli | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli
- 29 April 2023FC St. Pauli 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 22 October 2022Arminia Bielefeld 2–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 21 December 2019FC St. Pauli 3–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 29 July 2019Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 14 April 2019FC St. Pauli 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 4 November 2018Arminia Bielefeld 1–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers
Arminia Bielefeld
- J. Grodowski3 goals
FC St. Pauli
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Arminia Bielefeld carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.72 for FC St. Pauli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Arminia Bielefeld L-W; FC St. Pauli D-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.78 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.23 for FC St. Pauli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arminia Bielefeld rate 1.29 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC St. Pauli rate 0.88 and 1.14.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arminia Bielefeld the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.78 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.23 for FC St. Pauli. Arminia Bielefeld's attack/defence rating is 1.29/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.14 for FC St. Pauli.