Hangzhou Greentown
vs
Wuhan Three Towns
Super League prediction
Our model says: Hangzhou Greentown 2–1 Wuhan Three Towns
The model makes it 43% Hangzhou Greentown, 26% draw, 31% Wuhan Three Towns — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Hangzhou Greentown 2.20, Wuhan Three Towns 1.66.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Hangzhou Greentown wins, grey are draws, red are Wuhan Three Towns wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hangzhou Greentown at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns
Hangzhou Greentown
- L1-2away to Tianjin Teda6 September 2026
- W6-0Yunnan Yukun29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sichuan Jiuniu22 August 2026
- L2-3Chengdu Better City15 August 2026
- L1-2away to Beijing Guoan1 August 2026
Wuhan Three Towns
- D1-1Henan Jianye12 September 2026
- D2-2Qingdao Youth Island5 September 2026
- W5-1away to Qingdao Jonoon29 August 2026
- D0-0Tianjin Teda22 August 2026
- L2-3SHANGHAI SIPG14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 28 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 25 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns
Hangzhou Greentown
- A. Mitriță9 goals11 assists
- Wang Yudong8 goals6 assists
Wuhan Three Towns
- J. Cádiz17 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hangzhou Greentown carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.35 for Wuhan Three Towns. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.66 for Wuhan Three Towns. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hangzhou Greentown rate 0.70 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wuhan Three Towns rate 0.69 and 1.93.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hangzhou Greentown the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.2 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.66 for Wuhan Three Towns. Hangzhou Greentown's attack/defence rating is 0.7/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.93 for Wuhan Three Towns.