FC Luzern
vs
Grasshoppers
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Luzern 2–1 Grasshoppers
The model makes it 39% FC Luzern, 27% draw, 34% Grasshoppers — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Luzern 1.76, Grasshoppers 1.53.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Luzern vs Grasshoppers
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are FC Luzern wins, grey are draws, red are Grasshoppers wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Luzern at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Luzern vs Grasshoppers
FC Luzern
- L2-4FC Basel 189313 September 2026
- D3-3away to BSC Young Boys5 September 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Servette FC29 August 2026
- W1-0Lausanne22 August 2026
Grasshoppers
- W1-0away to FC Thun12 September 2026
- D2-2FC Zurich5 September 2026
- W2-0FC St. Gallen2 September 2026
- L2-5away to FC Vaduz30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Servette FC8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Luzern | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 9 |
| 8 | Grasshoppers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Luzern vs Grasshoppers
- 25 April 2026Grasshoppers 1–2 FC LuzernSuper League
- 10 February 2026FC Luzern 4–3 GrasshoppersSuper League
- 2 November 2025FC Luzern 6–0 GrasshoppersSuper League
- 26 July 2025Grasshoppers 2–3 FC LuzernSuper League
- 6 April 2025Grasshoppers 3–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 3 November 2024FC Luzern 2–0 GrasshoppersSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Luzern and Grasshoppers
FC Luzern
- M. Di Giusto3 goals1 assists
- A. Cigaņiks3 goals
Grasshoppers
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Luzern carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.5 for Grasshoppers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for FC Luzern and 1.53 for Grasshoppers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Luzern rate 0.71 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Grasshoppers rate 0.75 and 1.52.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Luzern a 0.1% chance of the title and Grasshoppers 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Luzern the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for FC Luzern against 1.53 for Grasshoppers. FC Luzern's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.52 for Grasshoppers.