IF Elfsborg
vs
Halmstad
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: IF Elfsborg 1–0 Halmstad
The model makes it 53% IF Elfsborg, 28% draw, 19% Halmstad — fair odds of 1.89, 3.57 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: IF Elfsborg 1.82, Halmstad 0.69.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- IF Elfsborg are 4th on 37 points from 22 games; Halmstad are bottom on 14 points from 22 games — Allsvenskan.
- IF Elfsborg have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Djurgardens IF.
- Halmstad have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to AIK Stockholm.
- Last 6 meetings: IF Elfsborg 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Halmstad 1–1 IF Elfsborg.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts IF Elfsborg at 53% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad
IF Elfsborg
- W2-1away to Djurgardens IF20 September 2026
- W1-0Kalmar FF13 September 2026
- L1-2away to IF Brommapojkarna6 September 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF29 August 2026
- D1-1away to IFK Goteborg23 August 2026
Halmstad
- W2-1AIK Stockholm20 September 2026
- L1-2away to IFK Goteborg12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Degerfors IF5 September 2026
- W1-0Kalmar FF29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Orgryte IS22 August 2026
What these results say
- IF Elfsborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Halmstad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Halmstad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | IF Elfsborg | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 37 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 40 | -24 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: IF Elfsborg vs Halmstad
- 16 May 2026Halmstad 1–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 24 August 2025IF Elfsborg 1–2 HalmstadAllsvenskan
- 25 May 2025Halmstad 1–4 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 15 September 2024Halmstad 0–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 24 May 2024IF Elfsborg 2–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
- 22 March 2024IF Elfsborg 4–0 HalmstadFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: IF Elfsborg and Halmstad
IF Elfsborg
- L. Ãstman6 goals1 assist
Halmstad
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
IF Elfsborg carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.11 for Halmstad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.69 for Halmstad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IF Elfsborg rate 0.63 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Halmstad rate 0.39 and 1.78.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives IF Elfsborg a 0.1% chance of the title and Halmstad 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IF Elfsborg the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for IF Elfsborg against 0.69 for Halmstad. IF Elfsborg's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.78 for Halmstad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
IF Elfsborg at home · Halmstad away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: IF Elfsborg 22, Halmstad 22.
IF Elfsborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Halmstad have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
IF Elfsborg
- at Sirius18 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 30%
- vs Malmo FF23 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 39%
- at AIK Stockholm27 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 36%
- vs Orgryte IS1 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 52%
- at Hammarby FF6 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 24%
Halmstad
- vs Hammarby FF18 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 18%
- at Vasteras SK FK23 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 21%
- vs Malmo FF28 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 25%
- at Sirius3 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 17%
- vs Djurgardens IF8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.