20 September 2026, 12:00 UTC

Halmstad vs AIK Stockholm Allsvenskan prediction & result

Orjans Vall, Halmstad
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Halmstad 2-1 AIK Stockholm.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Halmstad, 25% draw, 49% AIK Stockholm — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AIK Stockholm at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Halmstad4%Draw89%AIK Stockholm7%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Omar Farajassist: Rami Kaib
48'
54'
⚽Johan Hove
59'
🔁Linus Carlstrandout: S. Wilson
🔁Omar Farajout: Malte Persson
72'
🔁Ajdin Zeljkovicout: Marvin Illary
72'
74'
🔁Yannick Emilio Geigerout: Sixten Gustafsson
74'
🔁Wilmer Olofssonout: Sebastian Lund Hausner
88'
Eskil Smidesang Edh
⚽Malte Perssonassist: Marvin Illary
90'
🔁Erik Ludvig Arvidssonout: Erko Tougjas
90+2'
🔁Hussein Carneilout: Oliver Kapsimalis
90+3'

Match stats — Halmstad vs AIK Stockholm

34%Possession66%
18Shots16
10On target3
4Corners3

Line-ups

Halmstad 4-4-2
  • 1T. RönningG
  • 17A. BomanD
  • 5P. GregorD
  • 3G. WallentinD
  • 24R. KaibD
  • 11L. ArvidssonM
  • 6J. AllanssonM
  • 8N. MäenpääM
  • 14H. CarneilM
  • 23A. ZeljkovicF
  • 9O. FarajF
Substitutes
  • 34Hjalmar AbergD
  • 25A. Damnjanovic NilssonM
  • 19M. IllaryM
  • 13Vincent Johansson M
  • 22Oliver KapsimalisF
  • 18Malte PerssonF
  • 4F. SchybergD
  • 16E. TõugjasD
  • 35A. WihedG
Coach: S. Baxter
AIK Stockholm 4-2-3-1
  • 15K. NordfeldtG
  • 17M. ThychosenD
  • 34W. OlofssonD
  • 3H. MatthysD
  • 2E. EdhD
  • 46Yannick GeigerM
  • 18A. AliM
  • 8J. HoveM
  • 48A. KouameM
  • 10L. AssadiM
  • 9L. CarlstrandF
Substitutes
  • 28L. JäretegM
  • 30K. JoelssonG
  • 7A. MujanićM
  • 49O. PukelisD
  • 42M. SultygovF
  • 21S. WilsonM
  • 16Sixten GustafssonF
  • 47L. CamaraD
  • 20S. HausnerD
Coach: Jose Riveiro

Form going into Halmstad vs AIK Stockholm

Halmstad

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to IFK Goteborg12 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Degerfors IF5 September 2026
  • W1-0Kalmar FF29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Orgryte IS22 August 2026
  • L0-1away to BK Hacken17 August 2026

AIK Stockholm

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Mjallby AIF16 September 2026
  • L1-4Vasteras SK FK12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Malmo FF7 September 2026
  • W3-2Hammarby FF30 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Djurgardens IF16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Halmstad failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Halmstad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Halmstad had two goals or fewer.
  • AIK Stockholm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AIK Stockholm conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for AIK Stockholm.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Halmstad2645171849-3117
8AIK Stockholm2610884245-338

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Halmstad vs AIK Stockholm

  • 5 April 2026AIK Stockholm 2–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 9 November 2025AIK Stockholm 0–2 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 6 July 2025Halmstad 2–0 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 10 November 2024AIK Stockholm 5–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 15 July 2024Halmstad 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Halmstad and AIK Stockholm

Halmstad

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

AIK Stockholm

GoalsAssists

  • J. Hove103

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Halmstad beat AIK Stockholm 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for AIK Stockholm at 49% and given a win for Halmstad 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Omar Faraj 48' for Halmstad, Johan Hove 54' for AIK Stockholm, Malte Persson 90' for Halmstad.

How the call on Halmstad v AIK Stockholm has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 28% / 26% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 26% / 25% / 49%: the biggest move is AIK Stockholm's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Halmstad win26%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. AIK Stockholm win49%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.