Rodez
vs
Montpellier
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Rodez 1–0 Montpellier
The model makes it 35% Rodez, 30% draw, 35% Montpellier — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Rodez 1.26, Montpellier 1.24.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Rodez and Montpellier are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Rodez are 14th on 7 points from 7 games; Montpellier are 4th on 12 points from 7 games — Ligue 2.
- Rodez are without a win in 4, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Nancy.
- Montpellier have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Reims.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Montpellier 4–2 Rodez.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rodez vs Montpellier
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rodez at 35% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rodez vs Montpellier
Rodez
- L3-4Nancy18 September 2026
- L0-1Grenoble11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Metz5 September 2026
- D2-2PAU28 August 2026
- W5-2away to Nantes22 August 2026
Montpellier
- D1-1away to Reims18 September 2026
- W1-0PAU11 September 2026
- L1-3away to Saint Etienne5 September 2026
- D0-0Boulogne28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Dunkerque21 August 2026
What these results say
- Rodez conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rodez failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rodez scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Montpellier scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Montpellier had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rodez | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | Montpellier | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rodez vs Montpellier
- 1 August 2026Montpellier 4–2 RodezFriendlies Clubs
- 20 February 2026Rodez 1–0 MontpellierLigue 2
- 31 October 2025Montpellier 2–0 RodezLigue 2
- 18 July 2025Montpellier 0–2 RodezFriendlies Clubs
- 16 December 2022Montpellier 5–0 RodezFriendlies Clubs
- 9 July 2022Montpellier 0–1 RodezFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Rodez and Montpellier
Rodez
- I. Baldé5 goals
Montpellier
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rodez carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.57 for Montpellier. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Rodez and 1.24 for Montpellier. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rodez rate 0.80 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Montpellier rate 0.58 and 1.07.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Montpellier, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rodez a 1.4% chance of the title and Montpellier 6.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rodez the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Rodez against 1.24 for Montpellier. Rodez's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.07 for Montpellier.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rodez at home · Montpellier away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Rodez 7, Montpellier 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rodez
- at Dijon24 Oct · Ligue 2win 33%
- vs Dunkerque30 Oct · Ligue 2win 43%
- at Clermont Foot6 Nov · Ligue 2win 34%
- at Guingamp20 Nov · Ligue 2win 36%
Montpellier
- vs RED Star FC 9324 Oct · Ligue 2win 39%
- at Annecy31 Oct · Ligue 2win 32%
- vs Metz6 Nov · Ligue 2win 37%
- at Laval20 Nov · Ligue 2win 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.