Reims
vs
Sochaux
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Reims 1–0 Sochaux
The model makes it 53% Reims, 27% draw, 20% Sochaux — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Reims 1.63, Sochaux 0.82.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Reims: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Reims are 2nd on 17 points from 9 games; Sochaux are 11th on 11 points from 9 games — Ligue 2.
- Reims are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 4-2 win at home to Dijon.
- Sochaux are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Metz.
- Last 5 meetings: Reims 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 January 2024, ended Sochaux 2–2 Reims.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Reims vs Sochaux
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Reims at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Reims vs Sochaux
Reims
- W4-2Dijon16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Nantes10 October 2026
- D1-1Montpellier18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Nancy11 September 2026
- D2-2Guingamp5 September 2026
Sochaux
- L2-3away to Metz17 October 2026
- D1-1Boulogne9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Laval18 September 2026
- W1-0Nantes12 September 2026
- D1-1away to PAU4 September 2026
What these results say
- Reims went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Reims scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Reims conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sochaux scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sochaux failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sochaux conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Reims | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 17 |
| 11 | Sochaux | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Reims
Chance to finish in the top four · 67% today
Sochaux
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Reims vs Sochaux
- 21 January 2024Sochaux 2–2 ReimsCoupe de France
- 8 December 2022Reims 3–0 SochauxFriendlies Clubs
- 9 February 2018Reims 3–0 SochauxLigue 2
- 16 September 2017Sochaux 2–4 ReimsLigue 2
- 11 February 2017Reims 0–1 SochauxLigue 2
Leading scorers: Reims and Sochaux
Reims
GoalsAssists
- Y. Fofana71
Sochaux
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Reims carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.39 for Sochaux. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Reims and 0.82 for Sochaux. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Reims rate 0.84 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sochaux rate 0.50 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Reims a 23% chance of the title and Sochaux 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Reims the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Reims against 0.82 for Sochaux. Reims's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.31 for Sochaux.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Reims at home · Sochaux away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Reims 9, Sochaux 9.
Reims score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Sochaux have let in 0 there.
Sochaux score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Reims have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Reims
- at Grenoble6 Nov · Ligue 2win 47%
- vs Saint Etienne20 Nov · Ligue 2win 42%
- at Rodez4 Dec · Ligue 2win 42%
- at Metz11 Dec · Ligue 2win 35%
Sochaux
- at Nancy6 Nov · Ligue 2win 28%
- vs Dunkerque20 Nov · Ligue 2win 37%
- at Dijon4 Dec · Ligue 2win 27%
- vs Montpellier11 Dec · Ligue 2win 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.