Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: Botev Vratsa 1-1 Cherno More Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Botev Vratsa, 17% draw, 17% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 1.52, 5.88 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botev Vratsa at 66% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 94Marin OrlinovG
- 88Lazar BoyanovD
- 36Milen StoevD
- 4Ivan GoranovD
- 3Sainey SanyangD
- 12Iliya YurukovM
- 6Abdullah KichukovM
- 81Kassim HadjiM
- 24Martin SmolenskiM
- 9Daniel GenovM
- 79Martin PetkovF
- 90Preslav BorukovF
- 17Samuil MechevM
- 77Luboslav Stoyanov MarinovG
- 1Lyubomir VasilevG
- 11Martin AchkovD
- 17José GallegosM
- 4Miroslav Danielov Tsonev
- 81Kristian TomovG
- 13Emanuil NyagolovD
- 3Zhivko AtanasovD
- 5Luciano SquadroneD
- 37Ventsislav KerchevD
- 24David TelesM
- 71Vasil PanayotovM
- 39Nikolay ZlatevM
- 7Mohamed AchiM
- 7Miguel BarandasF
- 9Aleksandar KolevF
- 19Georgi LazarovF
- 29Berk BeyhanM
- 26João BandaroD
- 21Petar AndreevM
- 70Antoan ManasievG
- 22Nikolay Petrov KostadinovM
- 34Kristiyan MihaylovM
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Botev Vratsa | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna
- 20 February 2026Cherno More Varna 0–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 29 August 2025Botev Vratsa 1–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 7 December 2024Botev Vratsa 2–3 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 12 August 2024Cherno More Varna 2–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
The result against the call
Botev Vratsa and Cherno More Varna drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Botev Vratsa at 66% and given a draw 17%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: V. Panayotov 70' for Cherno More Varna, M. Petkov 90+5' for Botev Vratsa.