25 July 2026, 03:00 UTC

Club Tijuana vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Caliente, Tijuana
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Club Tijuana 1-0 Leon.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Club Tijuana, 24% draw, 23% Leon — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Club Tijuana at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
D. Arcila
43'
B. Colula
⚽M. El Ghezouani (pen)assist: M. El Ghezouani
44'
46'
🔁D. Arcilaout: F. Beltran Cruz
🔁A. Zapataout: G. Mora
46'
46'
🔁A. Alvaradoout: E. Guerra
⚽G. Mora (pen)
53'
🔁R. Arcigaout: A. Vega
67'
🔁M. El Ghezouaniout: D. Abreu
67'
71'
🔁R. Echeverriaout: I. Moreno
71'
🔁B. Colulaout: L. Valadez
79'
🔁S. Reyesout: J. Lara
🔁Y. Padillaout: A. Mejia
81'

Match stats — Club Tijuana vs Leon

39%Possession61%
9Shots11
3On target2
3Corners10
1.93xG0.87

Goals against chances

Club Tijuana1 from 1.93 xGless than the chances were worth
Leon0 from 0.87 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Club Tijuana 4-1-4-1
  • 2Antonio RodríguezG
  • 3Rafael FernándezD
  • 12Jackson PorozoD
  • 6Jesús GómezD
  • 33Pablo Nicolás OrtízD
  • 8Iván TonaM
  • 17Ramiro ÁrcigaM
  • 20Ángel ZapataM
  • 31Yael PadillaM
  • 7Adonis PreciadoM
  • 9Mourad El GhezouaniF
Substitutes
  • 10Gilberto MoraM
  • 16Jesús VegaD
  • 19Diego AbreuF
  • 18Aarón MejíaF
  • 29Jorge HernándezG
  • 188Alejandro MagallonD
  • 4Unai BilbaoD
  • 26Aldahir PérezM
  • 197David OrduñoM
Coach: Sebastian Abreu
Leon 4-2-3-1
  • 23Oscar GarcíaG
  • 4Bryan ColulaD
  • 14Jhohan RomañaD
  • 3Juan GuevaraD
  • 26Salvador ReyesD
  • 20Rodrigo EcheverríaM
  • 29José RodríguezM
  • 16Jordi CortizoM
  • 13Daniel ArcilaM
  • 11Ismael DíazM
  • 19José AlvaradoF
Substitutes
  • 18Edgar GuerraM
  • 6Fernando BeltránM
  • 7Iván MorenoD
  • 35Luis ValadezM
  • 203Jesús LaraD
  • 1Jordan GarcíaG
  • 5Sebastián VegasD
  • 22Sebastián SantosM
  • 185Christopher MoraD
Coach: Javier Gandolfi

Form going into Club Tijuana vs Leon

Club Tijuana

  • W3-1Tigres UANL17 July 2026

Leon

  • L2-3Atlas18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Club Tijuana7412108+213
6Leon8413119+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Leon

  • 25 July 2026Club Tijuana 1–0 LeonLiga MX
  • 15 March 2026Leon 0–3 Club TijuanaLiga MX
  • 20 September 2025Club Tijuana 5–0 LeonLiga MX
  • 2 March 2025Leon 2–1 Club TijuanaLiga MX
  • 31 August 2024Club Tijuana 2–1 LeonLiga MX
  • 4 March 2024Club Tijuana 1–1 LeonLiga MX

Leading scorers: Club Tijuana and Leon

Club Tijuana

  • G. Mora4 goals1 assists

Leon

  • D. Arcila3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.