Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Palmeiras 1-2 Atletico Mineiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Palmeiras, 33% draw, 26% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro
Line-ups
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4Agustín GiayD
- 15Gustavo GómezD
- 26MuriloD
- 22Joaquín PiquerezD
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 32Emiliano MartínezM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 18MauricioM
- 11Jhon AriasM
- 10PaulinhoF
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 21KaiqueG
- 56Arthur GabrielD
- 43Luis BenedettiD
- 48LarsonM
- 45Erick BeléM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 22EversonG
- 2NatanaelD
- 4RuanD
- 13LyancoD
- 16Renan LodiD
- 25Tomás PérezM
- 8MayconM
- 23Ángelo PreciadoM
- 30Victor HugoM
- 11BernardM
- 9Mateo CassierraF
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 36Kauã PasciniD
- 3Iván RománD
- 19ReinierM
- 48João Pedro Porto Lucrécio "Gutte"M
- 5AlexsanderM
- 17Igor GomesM
- 39Mamady CisséM
Form going into Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro
Palmeiras
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Coritiba22 July 2026
Atletico Mineiro
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Bahia21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 56 | 22 | +34 | 70 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro
- 28 January 2026Atletico Mineiro 2–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 4 December 2025Atletico Mineiro 0–3 PalmeirasSerie A
- 20 July 2025Palmeiras 3–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 28 September 2024Palmeiras 2–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 17 June 2024Atletico Mineiro 0–4 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Atletico Mineiro
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López96
- Maurício91
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Mineiro won 2–1 at Palmeiras. The model had leaned towards a win for Palmeiras at 41% and given a win for Atletico Mineiro 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Victor Hugo 54' for Atletico Mineiro, Felipe Anderson 75' for Palmeiras, Igor Gomes 77' for Atletico Mineiro.