26 July 2026, 22:30 UTC

Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro Serie A prediction & result

Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Palmeiras 1-2 Atletico Mineiro.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Palmeiras, 33% draw, 26% Atletico Mineiro — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Palmeiras at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
A. Preciado
46'
🔁Mayconout: M. Cisse
54'
⚽Victor Hugo
🔁E. Martinezout: Vitor Roque
59'
🔁A. Giayout: Felipe Anderson
59'
🔁Paulinhoout: Heittor Vinicius
65'
71'
🔁Bernardout: A. Minda
71'
🔁Victor Hugoout: Igor Gomes
⚽Felipe Andersonassist: J. Arias
75'
76'
Ruan Tressoldi
77'
⚽Igor Gomesassist: A. Minda
🔁Mauricioout: Lucas Evangelista
78'
🔁J. Piquerezout: Arthur Gabriel
78'
85'
🔁A. Preciadoout: Vitor Hugo
90'
🔁T. Perezout: Alexsander
90+3'
R. Lodi

Match stats — Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro

69%Possession31%
22Shots9
6On target4
10Corners5

Line-ups

Palmeiras 4-3-2-1
  • 1Carlos MiguelG
  • 4Agustín GiayD
  • 15Gustavo GómezD
  • 26MuriloD
  • 22Joaquín PiquerezD
  • 17Marlon FreitasM
  • 32Emiliano MartínezM
  • 8Andreas PereiraM
  • 18MauricioM
  • 11Jhon AriasM
  • 10PaulinhoF
Substitutes
  • 14Marcelo LombaG
  • 21KaiqueG
  • 56Arthur GabrielD
  • 43Luis BenedettiD
  • 48LarsonM
  • 45Erick BeléM
  • 30Lucas EvangelistaM
  • 7Felipe AndersonM
  • 9Vitor RoqueF
Coach: Ferreira Abel
Atletico Mineiro 4-2-3-1
  • 22EversonG
  • 2NatanaelD
  • 4RuanD
  • 13LyancoD
  • 16Renan LodiD
  • 25Tomás PérezM
  • 8MayconM
  • 23Ángelo PreciadoM
  • 30Victor HugoM
  • 11BernardM
  • 9Mateo CassierraF
Substitutes
  • 1Gabriel DelfimG
  • 14Vitor HugoD
  • 36Kauã PasciniD
  • 3Iván RománD
  • 19ReinierM
  • 48João Pedro Porto Lucrécio "Gutte"M
  • 5AlexsanderM
  • 17Igor GomesM
  • 39Mamady CisséM
Coach: Eduardo Dominguez

Form going into Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro

Palmeiras

  • W3-1away to Coritiba22 July 2026

Atletico Mineiro

  • D1-1Bahia21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Palmeiras2716834721+2656
7Atletico Mineiro2611693531+439

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro

  • 26 July 2026Palmeiras 1–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 28 January 2026Atletico Mineiro 2–2 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 4 December 2025Atletico Mineiro 0–3 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 20 July 2025Palmeiras 3–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 28 September 2024Palmeiras 2–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 17 June 2024Atletico Mineiro 0–4 PalmeirasSerie A

Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Atletico Mineiro

Palmeiras

  • J. López8 goals4 assists
  • Maurício7 goals1 assists

Atletico Mineiro

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.