Grasshoppers vs FC Lugano Super League prediction & result
Final score: Grasshoppers 1-4 FC Lugano.
Before kick-off the model made it 17% Grasshoppers, 23% draw, 60% FC Lugano — fair odds of 5.88, 4.35 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 60% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Grasshoppers vs FC Lugano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 71Justin HammelG
- 28Simone StroscioD
- 73Dorian PaloschiD
- 4Luka MikulicD
- 57Nico RissiD
- 5Hassane ImouraneM
- 8Tim MeyerM
- 6Amir AbrashiM
- 7Luke PlangeF
- 9Nikolas MuciF
- 17Samuel KrasniqiF
- 10Óscar ClementeM
- 15Abdoulaye DiabyD
- 23Samuel MarquesM
- 60Samuele BengondoF
- 14Alieu ConatehF
- 1Marvin HübelG
- 22Pantaleo CretiD
- 55Dominik PapicM
- 56Denis SahinM
- 16David von BallmoosG
- 46Mattia ZanottiD
- 6Antonios PapadopoulosD
- 17Lars Lukas MaiD
- 18Joel BichselD
- 7Ezgjan AlioskiD
- 25Uran BislimiM
- 8Anto GrgićM
- 27Daniel Dos SantosM
- 11Renato SteffenF
- 30Dereck MoncadaF
- 21Yanis CimignaniM
- 91Kevin BehrensF
- 24Elias PihlströmF
- 3Hannes DelcroixD
- 14Ahmed KendouciM
- 28Felix GebhardtG
- 4Damian KelvinD
- 22Beckham CastroF
- 23Gjan AjdinM
Form going into Grasshoppers vs FC Lugano
Grasshoppers
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Lausanne25 July 2026
FC Lugano
All competitions we cover
- W5-1away to Dukagjini29 July 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz26 July 2026
- W1-0Dukagjini23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 9 |
| 1 | FC Lugano | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 9 | +25 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Grasshoppers vs FC Lugano
- 1 March 2026Grasshoppers 1–0 FC LuganoSuper League
- 31 January 2026Grasshoppers 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 27 September 2025FC Lugano 2–1 GrasshoppersSuper League
- 8 February 2025FC Lugano 1–1 GrasshoppersSuper League
- 31 October 2024Grasshoppers 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
Leading scorers: Grasshoppers and FC Lugano
Grasshoppers
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- D. Moncada51
- Daniel Dos Santos41
- H. Delcroix32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Lugano won 4–1 at Grasshoppers. The model had made a win for FC Lugano its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Luke Plange 22' for Grasshoppers, Dereck Moncada 52' for FC Lugano, Yanis Cimignani 71' for FC Lugano, Elias Pihlström 78' for FC Lugano, Yanis Cimignani 90+2' for FC Lugano. On expected goals it finished 1.83–2.13.