Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Slask Wroclaw, 21% draw, 13% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slask Wroclaw at 66% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. NiemczyckiG
- 27M. RosiakD
- 33Y. MatsenkoD
- 5L. BaD
- 3I. Christodoulou
- 8M. LlinaresD
- 7P. Samiec-TalarM
- 15J. YriarteM
- 20G. TomasiewiczM
- 19P. BanaszakF
- 11L. MarjanacF
- 25M. SzromnikG
- 14M. MokrzyckiM
- 10P. M. DembeleF
- 2D. SzalaD
- 44M. MalecD
- 21A. TimossiD
- 4M. DijakovicD
- 77E. ShabaniM
- 88A. CiuckaM
- 1K. TrelowskiG
- 77D. G. Debohi
- 25B. RacovitanD
- 20J. C. SilvaD
- 19M. AmeyawM
- 6O. RepkaM
- 10V. KocherginM
- 26E. OtienoM
- 11M. EmreliF
- 9P. MakuchF
- 21T. PienkoF
- 71T. KaricG
- 29W. ZolneczkoG
- 5M. BulatM
- 23K. StruskiM
- 22O. Abraham
- 2J. NapierajD
- 39I. BrusbergF
- 17J. JendrykaM
- 7F. TudorM
Form going into Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa
Slask Wroclaw
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze25 July 2026
Raków Częstochowa
- W4-0away to Valletta FC30 July 2026
- L1-2Wisla Plock26 July 2026
- W3-1Valletta FC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa
- 2 August 2026Slask Wroclaw 2–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 3 December 2025Slask Wroclaw 1–2 Raków CzęstochowaCup
- 25 April 2025Raków Częstochowa 3–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 26 October 2024Slask Wroclaw 0–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 25 May 2024Raków Częstochowa 1–2 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 3 December 2023Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa
Slask Wroclaw
- P. Samiec-Talar4 goals3 assists
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch4 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.