Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Slask Wroclaw, 21% draw, 13% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slask Wroclaw at 66% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. NiemczyckiG
- 27M. RosiakD
- 33Y. MatsenkoD
- 5L. BaD
- 3I. Christodoulou
- 8M. LlinaresD
- 7P. Samiec-TalarM
- 15J. YriarteM
- 20G. TomasiewiczM
- 19P. BanaszakF
- 11L. MarjanacF
- 25M. SzromnikG
- 14M. MokrzyckiM
- 10P. M. DembeleF
- 2D. SzalaD
- 44M. MalecD
- 21A. TimossiD
- 4M. DijakovicD
- 77E. ShabaniM
- 88A. CiuckaM
- 1K. TrelowskiG
- 77D. G. Debohi
- 25B. RacovitanD
- 20J. C. SilvaD
- 19M. AmeyawM
- 6O. RepkaM
- 10V. KocherginM
- 26E. OtienoM
- 11M. EmreliF
- 9P. MakuchF
- 21T. PienkoF
- 71T. KaricG
- 29W. ZolneczkoG
- 5M. BulatM
- 23K. StruskiM
- 22O. Abraham
- 2J. NapierajD
- 39I. BrusbergF
- 17J. JendrykaM
- 7F. TudorM
Form going into Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa
Slask Wroclaw
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze25 July 2026
Raków Częstochowa
All competitions we cover
- W4-0away to Valletta FC30 July 2026
- L1-2Wisla Plock26 July 2026
- W3-1Valletta FC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 9 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slask Wroclaw vs Raków Częstochowa
- 3 December 2025Slask Wroclaw 1–2 Raków CzęstochowaCup
- 25 April 2025Raków Częstochowa 3–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 26 October 2024Slask Wroclaw 0–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 25 May 2024Raków Częstochowa 1–2 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 3 December 2023Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Slask Wroclaw and Raków Częstochowa
Slask Wroclaw
GoalsAssists
- P. Samiec-Talar47
- P. Banaszak40
Raków Częstochowa
GoalsAssists
- P. Makuch61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Slask Wroclaw beat Raków Częstochowa 2–1. The model had made a win for Slask Wroclaw its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: M. Emreli 60' for Raków Częstochowa, L. Marjanac 86' for Slask Wroclaw, P. Samiec-Talar 90' for Slask Wroclaw. On expected goals it finished 1.52–3.02.