Amed vs Beşiktaş Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Amed 3-2 Beşiktaş.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Amed, 28% draw, 30% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amed at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Amed vs Beşiktaş
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Alban LafontG
- 7Ermal KrasniqiD
- 5Lumbardh DellovaD
- 4David Robert BatesD
- 17Umut MeraşD
- 8Furkan SoyalpM
- 22Rayan RavelosonM
- 10Samuel BalletM
- 91Dia SabaM
- 74Mohamed KhalilM
- 99Gift OrbanF
- 33Amadou CisséD
- 27Burak BozanG
- 47Kahraman DemirtaşD
- 21Mehmet YeşilD
- 81Ali Turap BülbülD
- 3Miraç AcerD
- 6Cem ÜstündagM
- 93Rayan LutinM
- 45Mbaye DiagneF
- 1Alexander NübelG
- 62Amir MurilloD
- 12Emmanuel AgbadouD
- 35Tiago DjalóD
- 33Rıdvan YılmazD
- 6Salih ÖzcanM
- 17Ernest PokuM
- 15Junior OlaitanM
- 10Orkun KökçüM
- 29İlhan FakılıM
- 28Dušan VlahovićF
- 53Emirhan TopçuD
- 21Fabio MirettiM
- 18Václav ČernýF
- 7Milot RashicaM
- 80Doğan AlemdarG
- 22Taylan BulutD
- 11Kassoum OuattaraD
- 8Kartal Kayra YılmazM
- 4Wilfred NdidiM
Form going into Amed vs Beşiktaş
Amed
Süper Lig
- W5-0Başakşehir13 September 2026
Beşiktaş
Süper Lig
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 20 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Amed and Beşiktaş
Amed
GoalsAssists
- G. Orban83
- D. Sabia51
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- D. Vlahović60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Amed beat Beşiktaş 3–2. The model had made a win for Amed its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: G. Orban 13' for Amed, D. Saba 22' for Amed, D. Vlahovic 55' for Beşiktaş, F. Soyalp 59' for Amed, O. Kokcu (penalty) 90+8' for Beşiktaş. Sent off: A. Cisse (Amed) 84'. On expected goals it finished 1.47–1.99.
How the call on Amed v Beşiktaş has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Amed's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Amed win42%▲ +5
- Draw28%=
- Beşiktaş win30%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.