Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Samsunspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Erzurumspor FK, 31% draw, 27% Samsunspor — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Erzurumspor FK at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ertuğrul TaşkıranG
- 53Orhan OvacıklıD
- 4Amar GerxhaliuD
- 22Mustafa YumluD
- 18Nihad MujakićD
- 15Guram GiorbelidzeD
- 65Martín RodríguezM
- 42Elisha OwusuM
- 6Brandon BaiyeM
- 20Miguel CardosoM
- 10Eren TozluF
- 8Sefa AkgünM
- 19Ibrahim DiabatéF
- 9Gyrano KerkF
- 2Festy EboseleD
- 31Matija OrbanićG
- 3Yakup KırtayD
- 23Cengizhan BayrakD
- 77Lawrence AgyekumM
- 99Mustafa FettahogluF
- 1Okan KocukG
- 2Josafat MendesD
- 16Strahinja ErakovićD
- 34Gabriele GuarinoD
- 17Logi TomassonD
- 5Celil YükselM
- 4Elliot WattM
- 8Samed OnurM
- 30Saikuba JarjuF
- 18Mohamed BayoF
- 11Emre KılınçF
- 10Tanguy CoulibalyF
- 42Antoine SekongoM
- 20Yalçın KayanM
- 25Bilal BayazitG
- 13Efe Yiğit ÜstünG
- 22Yunus Emre ÇiftD
- 3Igor DrapińskiD
- 23Enes AlbakD
- 29Haluk Mustafa TanD
Form going into Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor
Erzurumspor FK
Süper Lig
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş11 September 2026
Samsunspor
Süper Lig
- L1-5Çorum FK12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 14 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor
- 30 January 2023Samsunspor 2–1 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 27 August 2022Erzurumspor FK 2–2 Samsunspor1. Lig
- 19 March 2022Erzurumspor FK 1–2 Samsunspor1. Lig
- 23 October 2021Samsunspor 0–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 11 February 2018Samsunspor 1–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
Leading scorers: Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor
Erzurumspor FK
GoalsAssists
- E. Tozlu31
- Miguel Cardoso30
Samsunspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Erzurumspor FK beat Samsunspor 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Erzurumspor FK at 42%. The goal: M. Cardoso 45' for Erzurumspor FK. On expected goals it finished 0.77–0.40.
How the call on Erzurumspor FK v Samsunspor has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 42% / 31% / 27%: the biggest move is Erzurumspor FK's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Erzurumspor FK win42%▲ +2
- Draw31%=
- Samsunspor win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.