1 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Victor Legrotaglie, Mendoza
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Gimnasia Mendoza 2-0 Union Santa Fe.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Gimnasia Mendoza, 19% draw, 49% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 3.13, 5.26 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Union Santa Fe at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gimnasia Mendoza99%Draw1%Union Santa Fe0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Esteban Fernández
7'
Facundo Lencioni
14'
•Facundo Lencioni
45+1'
⚽A. Modica (pen)
45'
🔁S. Rodriguezout: L. Cingolani
46'
🔁E. Fernandezout: G. Guiffrey
46'
⚽A. Modicaassist: F. Lencioni
50'
59'
🔁J. Mosqueiraout: M. Estigarribia
67'
🔁L. Vargasout: J. Pintado
67'
🔁L. Ayalaout: B. Pitton
🔁F. Antoniniout: N. Barboza
76'
🔁A. Modicaout: I. Sabatini
80'
80'
🔁M. Aguirreout: B. Cuello
80'
🔁I. Malcorraout: E. Ramirez
🔁J. Francoout: L. Paredes
88'

Match stats — Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe

52%Possession48%
15Shots13
7On target4
9Corners5
1.71xG1.43

Goals against chances

Gimnasia Mendoza2 from 1.71 xGabout what the chances were worth
Union Santa Fe0 from 1.43 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gimnasia Mendoza 4-3-1-2
  • 23C. RigamontiG
  • 22J. FrancoD
  • 42L. CarreraD
  • 4E. MunozD
  • 3M. RecaldeD
  • 30E. FernandezM
  • 21F. AntoniniM
  • 19J. CeballosM
  • 26F. LencioniM
  • 11S. RodriguezF
  • 9A. ModicaF
Substitutes
  • 31L. PetruchiG
  • 33B. AndradaF
  • 7L. CingolaniF
  • 28T. O'ConnorM
  • 16G. GuiffreyD
  • 10N. RomanoF
  • 15U. SanchezM
  • 5N. BarbozaM
  • 32L. ParedesD
Coach: Ariel Broggi
Union Santa Fe 4-1-3-2
  • 21M. MansillaG
  • 35L. VargasD
  • 44T. FagioliD
  • 26J. LuduenaD
  • 18L. AyalaD
  • 5L. MenossiM
  • 20J. PalaciosM
  • 17J. MosqueiraM
  • 10I. MalcorraM
  • 25C. TarragonaF
  • 31M. AguirreF
Substitutes
  • 40L. MeuliG
  • 15J. PintadoD
  • 22B. CuelloM
  • 29S. VeraM
  • 8E. GiacconeM
  • 46S. GrellaM
  • 36M. AimarD
  • 43E. RamirezF
  • 12B. PittonD
Coach: Leonardo Madelon

Form going into Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe

Gimnasia Mendoza

  • L0-1away to San Lorenzo28 July 2026
  • W1-0Central Cordoba de Santiago24 July 2026

Union Santa Fe

  • D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Gimnasia Mendoza9513149+516
8Union Santa Fe94141614+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe

  • 1 August 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 2–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 3 February 2026Union Santa Fe 4–0 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 18 April 2024Union Santa Fe 1–2 Gimnasia MendozaCopa Argentina

Leading scorers: Gimnasia Mendoza and Union Santa Fe

Gimnasia Mendoza

  • A. Módica12 goals

Union Santa Fe

  • C. Tarragona14 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.