Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 3 · 1 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe

Victor Legrotaglie, Mendoza

The model makes it 37% Gimnasia Mendoza, 20% draw, 43% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.70, 5.00 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Gimnasia Mendoza 2.07, Union Santa Fe 2.25.

Both teams to score: 79%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

79%
Both teams to score
81%
Over 2.5 goals
19%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-2 7%1-2 7%1-1 6%

Head-to-head: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe

  • 3 February 2026Union Santa Fe 4–0 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 18 April 2024Union Santa Fe 1–2 Gimnasia MendozaCopa Argentina
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Union Santa Fe the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Gimnasia Mendoza against 2.25 for Union Santa Fe. Gimnasia Mendoza's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/1.32 for Union Santa Fe.