Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Gimnasia Mendoza 2-0 Union Santa Fe.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Gimnasia Mendoza, 19% draw, 49% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 3.13, 5.26 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union Santa Fe at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23C. RigamontiG
- 22J. FrancoD
- 42L. CarreraD
- 4E. MunozD
- 3M. RecaldeD
- 30E. FernandezM
- 21F. AntoniniM
- 19J. CeballosM
- 26F. LencioniM
- 11S. RodriguezF
- 9A. ModicaF
- 31L. PetruchiG
- 33B. AndradaF
- 7L. CingolaniF
- 28T. O'ConnorM
- 16G. GuiffreyD
- 10N. RomanoF
- 15U. SanchezM
- 5N. BarbozaM
- 32L. ParedesD
- 21M. MansillaG
- 35L. VargasD
- 44T. FagioliD
- 26J. LuduenaD
- 18L. AyalaD
- 5L. MenossiM
- 20J. PalaciosM
- 17J. MosqueiraM
- 10I. MalcorraM
- 25C. TarragonaF
- 31M. AguirreF
- 40L. MeuliG
- 15J. PintadoD
- 22B. CuelloM
- 29S. VeraM
- 8E. GiacconeM
- 46S. GrellaM
- 36M. AimarD
- 43E. RamirezF
- 12B. PittonD
Form going into Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe
Gimnasia Mendoza
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo28 July 2026
- W1-0Central Cordoba de Santiago24 July 2026
Union Santa Fe
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 20 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe
- 3 February 2026Union Santa Fe 4–0 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 April 2024Union Santa Fe 1–2 Gimnasia MendozaCopa Argentina
Leading scorers: Gimnasia Mendoza and Union Santa Fe
Gimnasia Mendoza
GoalsAssists
- A. Módica140
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona152
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gimnasia Mendoza beat Union Santa Fe 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Union Santa Fe at 49% and given a win for Gimnasia Mendoza 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Modica (penalty) 45' for Gimnasia Mendoza, A. Modica 50' for Gimnasia Mendoza. On expected goals it finished 1.71–1.43.