Charleroi
vs
Union St. Gilloise
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 38% Charleroi, 27% draw, 35% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Charleroi 1.38, Union St. Gilloise 1.32.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Charleroi
- W1-0away to Lommel United16 August 2026
- W3-1OH Leuven9 August 2026
Union St. Gilloise
- D0-0Zulte Waregem15 August 2026
- W5-1away to KVC Westerlo8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Charleroi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise
- 11 February 2026Union St. Gilloise 4–1 CharleroiCup
- 4 February 2026Charleroi 0–0 Union St. GilloiseCup
- 14 December 2025Charleroi 1–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 18 October 2025Union St. Gilloise 3–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 11 January 2025Charleroi 1–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 16 August 2024Union St. Gilloise 1–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Charleroi carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.98 for Union St. Gilloise. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Charleroi W-W; Union St. Gilloise W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Charleroi and 1.32 for Union St. Gilloise. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charleroi rate 0.88 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union St. Gilloise rate 1.08 and 0.83.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charleroi the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Charleroi against 1.32 for Union St. Gilloise. Charleroi's attack/defence rating is 0.88/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/0.83 for Union St. Gilloise.