5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Charleroi, 29% draw, 30% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Charleroi at 41% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
Ondrej Kricfalusi
Mardochée Nzita
9'
12'
⚽Mohamed Koné (OG)
⚽Freddy Mbembaassist: Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
27'
⚽Patrick Pflückeassist: Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
41'
44'
⚽Adem Zorgane
45+2'
Louis Patris
49'
⚽Kamiel Van De Perreassist: Besfort Zeneli
🔁Freddy Mbembaout: Antoine Colassin
64'
🔁Amine Boukamirout: Triston Rowe
64'
72'
🔁Raul Floruczout: Darius Olaru
72'
🔁Louis Patrisout: Denzel De Roeve
🔁Patrick Pflückeout: Adama Bojang
72'
80'
🔁Mateo Biondicout: Ilan Hurtevent
80'
🔁Besfort Zeneliout: Nikki Havenaar
84'
🔁Adem Zorganeout: Rob Schoofs
🔁Mardochée Nzitaout: Gaku Nawata
86'

Match stats — Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise

60%Possession40%
20Shots17
5On target7
5Corners7

Line-ups

Charleroi 4-2-3-1
  • 30M. KonéG
  • 3K. Van Den KerkhofD
  • 4A. OusouD
  • 95C. KeitaD
  • 24M. NzitaD
  • 6A. BoukamirM
  • 18Y. KhalifiM
  • 14P. PflückeM
  • 8J. RomsaasM
  • 20F. Situmona MbembaM
  • 21A. ScheidlerF
Substitutes
  • 9A. BojangF
  • 19I. CisseM
  • 25A. ColassinF
  • 1M. DelavalléeG
  • 51Mory KeraM
  • 13G. NawataM
  • 2Triston RoweD
  • 33N. SolheidD
  • 44M. SowD
Coach: Mario Kohnen
Union St. Gilloise 3-4-1-2
  • 12H. KoffiG
  • 5K. Mac AllisterD
  • 29M. SyllaD
  • 80O. KričfalušiD
  • 27L. PatrisM
  • 6K. Van de PerreM
  • 8A. ZorganeM
  • 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva CarvalhoM
  • 23B. ZeneliM
  • 30R. FloruczF
  • 9M. BiondicF
Substitutes
  • 17R. SchoofsM
  • 14I. PavlićM
  • 38R. MofokengF
  • 25I. HurteventF
  • 55N. HavenaarD
  • 28D. OlaruM
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 1V. ChambaereG
  • 20D. AquinoF
Coach: D. Hubert

Form going into Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise

Charleroi

  • W3-1away to Kortrijk29 August 2026
  • W2-0KV Mechelen22 August 2026

Union St. Gilloise

  • W3-0away to St. Truiden2 September 2026
  • W3-0Anderlecht30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Charleroi7601157+818
1Union St. Gilloise7610213+1819

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise

  • 5 September 2026Charleroi 2–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 11 February 2026Union St. Gilloise 4–1 CharleroiCup
  • 4 February 2026Charleroi 0–0 Union St. GilloiseCup
  • 14 December 2025Charleroi 1–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 18 October 2025Union St. Gilloise 3–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 11 January 2025Charleroi 1–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise

Charleroi

  • A. Scheidler3 goals1 assist
  • F. Situmona Mbemba3 goals

Union St. Gilloise

  • R. Florucz4 goals
  • R. Mofokeng3 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.