Anderlecht
vs
Kortrijk
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 50% Anderlecht, 25% draw, 25% Kortrijk — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.73, Kortrijk 1.14.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Anderlecht
- L0-1away to SK Beveren16 August 2026
- W2-1RAAL La Louvière9 August 2026
Kortrijk
- L0-3Antwerp15 August 2026
- L0-3away to Club Brugge KV7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Anderlecht | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Anderlecht vs Kortrijk
- 19 January 2025Kortrijk 0–2 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
- 3 November 2024Anderlecht 4–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 16 March 2024Anderlecht 0–1 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 17 September 2023Kortrijk 2–2 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
- 19 February 2023Kortrijk 2–2 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
- 18 September 2022Anderlecht 4–1 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Anderlecht carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.71 for Kortrijk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Anderlecht W-L; Kortrijk L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Anderlecht and 1.14 for Kortrijk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Anderlecht rate 0.87 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kortrijk rate 0.79 and 1.05.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 463 correct results out of 963 settled predictions (48%), with 90 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Anderlecht the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Anderlecht against 1.14 for Kortrijk. Anderlecht's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.05 for Kortrijk.