St. Truiden
vs
Union St. Gilloise
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 33% St. Truiden, 23% draw, 44% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 3.03, 4.35 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: St. Truiden 1.65, Union St. Gilloise 1.94.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
St. Truiden
- D3-3away to Cercle Brugge14 August 2026
- D1-1Lommel United8 August 2026
Union St. Gilloise
- D0-0Zulte Waregem15 August 2026
- W5-1away to KVC Westerlo8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | St. Truiden | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise
- 2 May 2026St. Truiden 2–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 4 April 2026Union St. Gilloise 1–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 22 March 2026St. Truiden 1–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 26 October 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 2 February 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 25 August 2024St. Truiden 0–0 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers
St. Truiden
- R. Merlen2 goals
- I. Sebaoui1 goals2 assists
Union St. Gilloise
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
St. Truiden carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.98 for Union St. Gilloise. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): St. Truiden D-D; Union St. Gilloise W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for St. Truiden and 1.94 for Union St. Gilloise. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Truiden rate 1.04 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union St. Gilloise rate 1.09 and 0.84.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 941 settled predictions (48%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for St. Truiden against 1.94 for Union St. Gilloise. St. Truiden's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.84 for Union St. Gilloise.