Konyaspor
vs
Kocaelispor
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 42% Konyaspor, 26% draw, 32% Kocaelispor — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Konyaspor 1.54, Kocaelispor 1.31.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor
- 14 March 2026Kocaelispor 1–2 KonyasporSüper Lig
- 18 October 2025Konyaspor 2–3 KocaelisporSüper Lig
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Konyaspor carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.58 for Kocaelispor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Konyaspor and 1.31 for Kocaelispor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Konyaspor rate 0.77 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kocaelispor rate 0.59 and 1.06.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Konyaspor the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Konyaspor against 1.31 for Kocaelispor. Konyaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.06 for Kocaelispor.