Gençlerbirliği S.K.
vs
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 Alanyaspor
The model makes it 34% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 30% draw, 36% Alanyaspor — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.13, Alanyaspor 1.18.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 904 settled matches.
A tight game: Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Alanyaspor are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s rating is built from 42 Süper Lig matches and Alanyaspor's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 719 matches.
Key facts
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 15th on 8 points from 8 games; Alanyaspor are 9th on 12 points from 8 games — Süper Lig.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Galatasaray.
- Alanyaspor have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Fenerbahçe.
- Last 5 meetings: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 March 2026, ended Alanyaspor 0–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K..
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Alanyaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alanyaspor at 36% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 3,310 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Alanyaspor
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- L0-1Galatasaray17 October 2026
- D2-2Amed10 October 2026
- L0-4away to Başakşehir19 September 2026
- L1-2Kasımpaşa13 September 2026
- L0-5away to Trabzonspor6 September 2026
Alanyaspor
- L0-3away to Fenerbahçe17 October 2026
- D0-0Erzurumspor FK10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Çorum FK19 September 2026
- D2-2Göztepe12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rizespor7 September 2026
What these results say
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gençlerbirliği S.K. had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Alanyaspor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Alanyaspor
- 9 March 2026Alanyaspor 0–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 4 October 2025Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 4 April 2021Alanyaspor 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 5 December 2020Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 16 February 2020Alanyaspor 0–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gençlerbirliği S.K. carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.64 for Alanyaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 1.18 for Alanyaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. rate 0.64 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alanyaspor rate 0.69 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 0% chance of the title and Alanyaspor 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alanyaspor the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. against 1.18 for Alanyaspor. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.07 for Alanyaspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home · Alanyaspor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Gençlerbirliği S.K.Alanyaspor
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 14th after 8 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 14th so far); Alanyaspor are 8th after 8 (between 3rd and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 8, Alanyaspor 8.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Alanyaspor have let in 0 there.
Alanyaspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Gençlerbirliği S.K. have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- at Beşiktaş8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 14%
- vs Gaziantep FK21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 41%
- at Samsunspor28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 31%
- vs Eyüpspor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 52%
Alanyaspor
- vs Trabzonspor8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 27%
- at Kasımpaşa22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 28%
- vs Konyaspor27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 43%
- at Amed5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.