Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Galatasaray 3-1 Kasımpaşa.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Galatasaray, 22% draw, 17% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Galatasaray at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1U. CakirG
- 53B. YilmazD
- 6D. SanchezD
- 42A. BardakciD
- 4I. JakobsD
- 34L. TorreiraM
- 8Gabriel SaraM
- 11Y. AkgunM
- 83A. BatrakovM
- 27R. LeaoM
- 21D. GulF
- 24J. YilmazG
- 7R. SallaiF
- 3E. BitshiabuD
- 17E. ElmaliD
- 23K. AyhanD
- 20I. GundoganM
- 99M. LeminaM
- 74R. NhagaM
- 10L. SaneF
- 1A. GianniotisG
- 2C. WinckD
- 14K. MouangaD
- 27M. IlieD
- 45A. KarapoD
- 16A. BaldurssonM
- 26K. DemirbayM
- 50G. YalcinM
- 51E. MendesM
- 7A. KolM
- 9A. BenedyczakF
- 25A. YanarG
- 5J. JessenD
- 4A. ArousD
- 10H. HajradinovicM
- 8A. MujdeM
- 17J. Rak-SakyiF
- 66E. BozM
- 19M. RaffertyM
- 11T. DiarraF
Form going into Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
Galatasaray
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Trabzonspor19 September 2026
- W1-0Kocaelispor13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting CP9 September 2026
- W3-2away to Başakşehir4 September 2026
- W3-2Göztepe29 August 2026
Kasımpaşa
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Konyaspor18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.13 September 2026
- D2-2Amed6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Başakşehir30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Çorum FK22 August 2026
What these results say
- Galatasaray scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Galatasaray conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Galatasaray had three goals or more.
- Kasımpaşa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Kasımpaşa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 15 | +12 | 28 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
- 17 May 2026Kasımpaşa 1–0 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 21 December 2025Galatasaray 3–0 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 2 March 2025Kasımpaşa 3–3 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 28 September 2024Galatasaray 3–3 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 17 March 2024Kasımpaşa 3–4 GalatasaraySüper Lig
Leading scorers: Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa
Galatasaray
GoalsAssists
- V. Osimhen93
Kasımpaşa
GoalsAssists
- A. Benedyczak72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Galatasaray beat Kasımpaşa 3–1. The model had made a win for Galatasaray its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: A. Bardakci 45' for Galatasaray, J. Rak-Sakyi 68' for Kasımpaşa, B. Yilmaz 90' for Galatasaray, M. Lemina 90' for Galatasaray. Sent off: Lucas Torreira (Galatasaray) 65'. On expected goals it finished 2.40–0.51.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Galatasaray a 75.6% chance to finish in the top four: 78.6% after a win, 73.3% after a draw, 67.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.6%, 3 points higher than before the match.
For Kasımpaşa the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.4% going in: 7.8% after a win, 5.6% after a draw, 4.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.4%, 1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa has moved
First published on 25 Sep at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 61% / 22% / 17%: the biggest move is Galatasaray's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Galatasaray win61%▲ +7
- Draw22%▼ −3
- Kasımpaşa win17%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.