Galatasaray
vs
Kasımpaşa
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Galatasaray 2–0 Kasımpaşa
The model makes it 54% Galatasaray, 25% draw, 21% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.21, Kasımpaşa 0.94.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Galatasaray at 54% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
Galatasaray
- L0-4away to Trabzonspor19 September 2026
- W1-0Kocaelispor13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Başakşehir4 September 2026
- W3-2Göztepe29 August 2026
- W4-0away to Erzurumspor FK21 August 2026
Kasımpaşa
- D0-0Konyaspor18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.13 September 2026
- D2-2Amed6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Başakşehir30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Çorum FK22 August 2026
What these results say
- Galatasaray won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Galatasaray scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Galatasaray had three goals or more.
- Kasımpaşa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Kasımpaşa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Galatasaray | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Kasımpaşa | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
- 17 May 2026Kasımpaşa 1–0 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 21 December 2025Galatasaray 3–0 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 2 March 2025Kasımpaşa 3–3 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 28 September 2024Galatasaray 3–3 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 17 March 2024Kasımpaşa 3–4 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 3 November 2023Galatasaray 2–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa
Galatasaray
- V. Osimhen6 goals2 assists
- Gabriel Sara2 goals2 assists
Kasımpaşa
- A. Benedyczak4 goals1 assists
- G. Yalçın2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Galatasaray carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.61 for Kasımpaşa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.21 goals for Galatasaray and 0.94 for Kasımpaşa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Galatasaray rate 1.23 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kasımpaşa rate 0.65 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Galatasaray a 14.9% chance of the title and Kasımpaşa 2.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Galatasaray the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Galatasaray against 0.94 for Kasımpaşa. Galatasaray's attack/defence rating is 1.23/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.08 for Kasımpaşa.