Bodrum FK
vs
Keçiörengücü
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Bodrum FK 1–0 Keçiörengücü
The model makes it 39% Bodrum FK, 30% draw, 31% Keçiörengücü — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bodrum FK 1.38, Keçiörengücü 1.08.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bodrum FK are 14th on 8 points from 8 games; Keçiörengücü are 6th on 13 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Bodrum FK have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Pendikspor.
- Keçiörengücü are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sivasspor.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Bodrum FK 4–3 Keçiörengücü.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bodrum FK at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü
Bodrum FK
- D1-1away to Pendikspor20 September 2026
- W4-0Batman Petrolspor12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Mardin 19697 September 2026
- D0-0Esenler Erokspor3 September 2026
- D0-0away to Manisa F.K.30 August 2026
Keçiörengücü
- D1-1Sivasspor19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Vanspor FK12 September 2026
- W3-0Sarıyer5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Boluspor1 September 2026
- D2-2Ümraniyespor28 August 2026
What these results say
- Bodrum FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bodrum FK had two goals or fewer.
- Keçiörengücü went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Keçiörengücü scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bodrum FK | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü
- 14 February 2026Bodrum FK 4–3 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 20 September 2025Keçiörengücü 2–1 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 6 April 2024Bodrum FK 0–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 11 November 2023Keçiörengücü 1–1 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 22 January 2023Bodrum FK 1–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 21 August 2022Keçiörengücü 1–3 Bodrum FK1. Lig
Leading scorers: Bodrum FK and Keçiörengücü
Bodrum FK
- E. Bilsel3 goals
Keçiörengücü
- M. Diouf5 goals2 assists
- F. Ezeh3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bodrum FK carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.5 for Keçiörengücü. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Bodrum FK and 1.08 for Keçiörengücü. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bodrum FK rate 0.56 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Keçiörengücü rate 0.75 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Keçiörengücü, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bodrum FK a 1.2% chance of the title and Keçiörengücü 6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodrum FK the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Bodrum FK against 1.08 for Keçiörengücü. Bodrum FK's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.51 for Keçiörengücü.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bodrum FK at home · Keçiörengücü away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Bodrum FK 8, Keçiörengücü 8.
Keçiörengücü score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Bodrum FK have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bodrum FK
- at Sarıyer13 Oct · 1. Ligwin 33%
- vs Bandırmaspor17 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Antalyaspor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 29%
- vs Ümraniyespor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 46%
- at Boluspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 44%
Keçiörengücü
- vs Iğdır FK14 Oct · 1. Ligwin 46%
- at Fatih Karagümrük19 Oct · 1. Ligwin 30%
- vs Bursaspor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Esenler Erokspor30 Oct · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Manisa F.K.7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.