Alanyaspor
vs
Erzurumspor FK
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Alanyaspor 1–0 Erzurumspor FK
The model makes it 50% Alanyaspor, 29% draw, 21% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Alanyaspor 1.65, Erzurumspor FK 0.71.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alanyaspor at 50% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
Alanyaspor
- W2-1away to Çorum FK19 September 2026
- D2-2Göztepe12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rizespor7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Eyüpspor30 August 2026
- W1-0Beşiktaş23 August 2026
Erzurumspor FK
- W1-0Samsunspor20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş11 September 2026
- W1-0Konyaspor5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.28 August 2026
- L0-4Galatasaray21 August 2026
What these results say
- Alanyaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Alanyaspor | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
- 11 May 2021Alanyaspor 2–3 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 21 January 2021Erzurumspor FK 1–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 14 January 2021Alanyaspor 4–1 Erzurumspor FKTürkiye Kupası
- 10 March 2019Alanyaspor 2–1 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 6 October 2018Erzurumspor FK 1–0 AlanyasporSüper Lig
The two sides
Alanyaspor carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.38 for Erzurumspor FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Alanyaspor and 0.71 for Erzurumspor FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alanyaspor rate 0.74 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Erzurumspor FK rate 0.50 and 1.34.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alanyaspor the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Alanyaspor against 0.71 for Erzurumspor FK. Alanyaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.34 for Erzurumspor FK.