Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Alanyaspor 0-0 Erzurumspor FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Alanyaspor, 27% draw, 18% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Alanyaspor at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 48Paulo VictorG
- 3N. LimaD
- 5F. AlitiD
- 20F. AksoyD
- 94F. HadergjonajM
- 42G. MakoutaM
- 55B. GezekM
- 11RuanM
- 7I. KayaF
- 19BikoueF
- 16Hwang Ui-JoF
- 23M. BayramG
- 4B. OzyurtD
- 10I. HagiM
- 8E. KeskinM
- 26I. CelikM
- 88Y. OzdemirM
- 22P. FernandesM
- 12M. EliaF
- 17A. UsluogluF
- 1E. TaskiranG
- 53O. OvacikliD
- 4A. GerxhaliuD
- 22M. YumluD
- 18N. MujakicD
- 15G. GiorbelidzeD
- 6B. BaiyeM
- 42E. OwusuM
- 65M. RodriguezM
- 10E. TozluF
- 20M. CardosoF
- 31M. OrbanicG
- 2F. EboseleD
- 3Y. KirtayD
- 23C. BayrakD
- 25O. KaraD
- 8S. AkgunM
- 21E. AcarM
- 99M. FettahogluF
- 19I. DiabateF
Form going into Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
Alanyaspor
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Çorum FK19 September 2026
- D2-2Göztepe12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rizespor7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Eyüpspor30 August 2026
- W1-0Beşiktaş23 August 2026
Erzurumspor FK
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Samsunspor20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş11 September 2026
- W1-0Konyaspor5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.28 August 2026
- L0-4Galatasaray21 August 2026
What these results say
- Alanyaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 12 |
| 12 | Erzurumspor FK | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
- 11 May 2021Alanyaspor 2–3 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 21 January 2021Erzurumspor FK 1–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 14 January 2021Alanyaspor 4–1 Erzurumspor FKTürkiye Kupası
- 10 March 2019Alanyaspor 2–1 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 6 October 2018Erzurumspor FK 1–0 AlanyasporSüper Lig
The result against the call
Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Alanyaspor at 55% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.89–1.41.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Alanyaspor a 11.8% chance to finish in the top four: 13.2% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 7.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.6%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.
For Erzurumspor FK the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 51.7% going in: 40.5% after a win, 50.9% after a draw, 54.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 50.9%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Alanyaspor v Erzurumspor FK has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 50% / 29% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 55% / 27% / 18%: the biggest move is Alanyaspor's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Alanyaspor win55%▲ +5
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Erzurumspor FK win18%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.