Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-2 Amed.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 24% draw, 53% Amed — fair odds of 4.35, 4.17 and 1.89.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Amed at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 70I. EgribayatG
- 90M. BaltaciD
- 6D. GoutasD
- 2Thalisson KelvenD
- 88F. UzumM
- 83R. LuisM
- 42O. DiabateM
- 77A. DursunM
- 7T. GouveiaF
- 10F. TongyaF
- 9P. MendesF
- 23G. AkkanG
- 32H. Ogul
- 53E. Cavusoglu
- 15A. CelikD
- 3H. AydarD
- 52G. ErdemM
- 48S. UcanM
- 45P. MartorF
- 12V. OrakpoF
- 40A. LafontG
- 7E. KrasniqiD
- 5L. DellovaD
- 4D. BatesD
- 17U. MerasD
- 22R. RavelosonM
- 8F. SoyalpM
- 10S. BalletM
- 91D. SabaM
- 74M. KhalilM
- 99G. OrbanF
- 27B. BozanG
- 47K. DemirtasD
- 81A. T. BulbulD
- 21M. YesilD
- 3M. AcerD
- 6C. UstundagM
- 93R. LutinM
- 45M. DiagneF
- 97B. KizildemirM
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Başakşehir19 September 2026
- L1-2Kasımpaşa13 September 2026
- L0-5away to Trabzonspor6 September 2026
- D1-1Erzurumspor FK28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Göztepe23 August 2026
Amed
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Beşiktaş20 September 2026
- W5-0Başakşehir13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Kasımpaşa6 September 2026
- W2-1Trabzonspor31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Kocaelispor24 August 2026
What these results say
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amed scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amed conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Amed had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 11 |
| 3 | Amed | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 15 | +13 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed
- 4 March 2025Amed 1–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
- 19 October 2024Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–1 Amed1. Lig
- 8 January 2017Amed 0–5 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Türkiye Kupası
- 29 December 2016Gençlerbirliği S.K. 6–0 AmedTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Amed
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Amed
GoalsAssists
- G. Orban104
- D. Sabia61
- S. Ballet41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Amed drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Amed at 53% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: D. Saba (penalty) 25' for Amed, R. Luis 54' for Gençlerbirliği S.K., S. Ballet 67' for Amed, Thalisson Kelven 90' for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. On expected goals it finished 0.50–2.11.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 38.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 28.3% after a win, 36.8% after a draw, 42.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 36.8%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
For Amed the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 62.5% going in: 67.4% after a win, 58.1% after a draw, 53.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 58.1%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Amed has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 25% / 26% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 23% / 24% / 53%: the biggest move is Amed's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. win23%▼ −2
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Amed win53%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.