Gençlerbirliği S.K.
vs
Amed
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2 Amed
The model makes it 25% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 26% draw, 49% Amed — fair odds of 4.00, 3.85 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.22, Amed 2.14.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amed at 49% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- L0-4away to Başakşehir19 September 2026
- L1-2Kasımpaşa13 September 2026
- L0-5away to Trabzonspor6 September 2026
- D1-1Erzurumspor FK28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Göztepe23 August 2026
Amed
- W3-2Beşiktaş20 September 2026
- W5-0Başakşehir13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Kasımpaşa6 September 2026
- W2-1Trabzonspor31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Kocaelispor24 August 2026
What these results say
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amed scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amed conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Amed had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
| 1 | Amed | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed
- 4 March 2025Amed 1–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
- 19 October 2024Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–1 Amed1. Lig
- 8 January 2017Amed 0–5 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Türkiye Kupası
- 29 December 2016Gençlerbirliği S.K. 6–0 AmedTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Amed
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Amed
- G. Orban7 goals2 assists
- D. Sabia3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gençlerbirliği S.K. carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.86 for Amed. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 2.14 for Amed. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. rate 0.61 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amed rate 1.18 and 1.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 0% chance of the title and Amed 56.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amed the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. against 2.14 for Amed. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.18/1.2 for Amed.