Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Samsunspor, 26% draw, 48% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Trabzonspor at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. KocukG
- 2J. MendesD
- 22Y. E. CiftD
- 34G. GuarinoD
- 17L. TomassonD
- 5C. YukselM
- 4E. WattM
- 10T. CoulibalyM
- 42A. SekongoM
- 11E. KilincM
- 18M. BayoF
- 25B. BayazitG
- 16S. ErakovicD
- 29M. TanD
- 3I. DrapinskiD
- 20Y. KayanM
- 8S. OnurM
- 19O. OhlenschlaegerF
- 77A. SousaM
- 7E. TavsanF
- 24A. OnanaG
- 20W. PinaD
- 27C. NwaiwuD
- 15S. SavicD
- 19M. EskihellacD
- 57M. KabasakalM
- 6FabinhoM
- 10M. SalahM
- 7E. MuciM
- 58A. SimsirM
- 9FranculinoF
- 1A. YildirimG
- 4S. AkaydinD
- 39C. OzkacarD
- 55S. Lopes CabralD
- 11O. TufanM
- 26T. Jabol-FolcarelliM
- 77M. MimarogluF
- 61C. CanakF
- 70N. SavioloF
Form going into Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
Samsunspor
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Erzurumspor FK20 September 2026
- L1-5Çorum FK12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kocaelispor6 September 2026
- L0-2Fenerbahçe30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Rizespor22 August 2026
Trabzonspor
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Galatasaray19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Konyaspor12 September 2026
- W5-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Amed31 August 2026
- L0-4away to Ferencvarosi TC27 August 2026
What these results say
- Samsunspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Samsunspor had two goals or fewer.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Trabzonspor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Samsunspor | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 7 |
| 2 | Trabzonspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
- 23 April 2026Samsunspor 0–0 TrabzonsporTürkiye Kupası
- 7 February 2026Samsunspor 0–3 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 31 August 2025Trabzonspor 1–1 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 25 May 2025Trabzonspor 2–2 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 4 January 2025Samsunspor 2–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Samsunspor and Trabzonspor
Samsunspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Trabzonspor
GoalsAssists
- Mohamed Salah93
- Franculino Djú42
- E. Muçi36
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Trabzonspor won 3–0 at Samsunspor. The model had made a win for Trabzonspor its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: E. Muci 28' for Trabzonspor, C. Nwaiwu 39' for Trabzonspor, Franculino 40' for Trabzonspor. Sent off: Melih Kabasakal (Trabzonspor) 43'. On expected goals it finished 1.37–1.98.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Samsunspor a 37.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.6% after a win, 36.7% after a draw, 40.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.7%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.
For Trabzonspor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 50.4% going in: 55.0% after a win, 47.8% after a draw, 42.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.0%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Samsunspor v Trabzonspor has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 28% / 27% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 26% / 26% / 48%: the biggest move is Trabzonspor's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Samsunspor win26%▼ −2
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Trabzonspor win48%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.