Samsunspor
vs
Trabzonspor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Samsunspor 1–2 Trabzonspor
The model makes it 28% Samsunspor, 27% draw, 45% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Samsunspor 1.21, Trabzonspor 1.87.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Trabzonspor at 45% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
Samsunspor
- L0-1away to Erzurumspor FK20 September 2026
- L1-5Çorum FK12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kocaelispor6 September 2026
- L0-2Fenerbahçe30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Rizespor22 August 2026
Trabzonspor
- W4-0Galatasaray19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Konyaspor12 September 2026
- W5-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Amed31 August 2026
- W2-1Başakşehir23 August 2026
What these results say
- Samsunspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Samsunspor had two goals or fewer.
- Trabzonspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Trabzonspor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Samsunspor | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
| 7 | Trabzonspor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
- 23 April 2026Samsunspor 0–0 TrabzonsporTürkiye Kupası
- 7 February 2026Samsunspor 0–3 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 31 August 2025Trabzonspor 1–1 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 25 May 2025Trabzonspor 2–2 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 4 January 2025Samsunspor 2–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 4 May 2024Samsunspor 3–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Samsunspor and Trabzonspor
Samsunspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Trabzonspor
- Mohamed Salah7 goals2 assists
- P. Onuachu2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Samsunspor carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.85 for Trabzonspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Samsunspor and 1.87 for Trabzonspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Samsunspor rate 0.73 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Trabzonspor rate 1.01 and 1.00.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Samsunspor a 0% chance of the title and Trabzonspor 9.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Trabzonspor the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Samsunspor against 1.87 for Trabzonspor. Samsunspor's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/1 for Trabzonspor.