Rizespor
vs
Fenerbahçe
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Rizespor 1–2 Fenerbahçe
The model makes it 26% Rizespor, 26% draw, 48% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Rizespor 1.30, Fenerbahçe 2.19.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 48% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe
Rizespor
- D2-2away to Göztepe20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Eyüpspor12 September 2026
- L0-1Alanyaspor7 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gaziantep FK29 August 2026
- L0-2Samsunspor22 August 2026
Fenerbahçe
- W8-0Eyüpspor20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gaziantep FK14 September 2026
- L1-2Beşiktaş5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Samsunspor30 August 2026
- W4-2Konyaspor22 August 2026
What these results say
- Rizespor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rizespor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Fenerbahçe | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe
- 17 April 2026Fenerbahçe 2–2 RizesporSüper Lig
- 23 November 2025Rizespor 2–5 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 2 February 2025Fenerbahçe 3–2 RizesporSüper Lig
- 25 August 2024Rizespor 0–5 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 17 February 2024Rizespor 1–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 1 October 2023Fenerbahçe 5–0 RizesporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Rizespor and Fenerbahçe
Rizespor
- E. Bulut2 goals1 assists
Fenerbahçe
- V. Muriqi6 goals1 assists
- M. Greenwood4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rizespor carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.99 for Fenerbahçe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Rizespor and 2.19 for Fenerbahçe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rizespor rate 0.76 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fenerbahçe rate 1.32 and 1.03.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rizespor a 0% chance of the title and Fenerbahçe 2.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.3 expected goals for Rizespor against 2.19 for Fenerbahçe. Rizespor's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/1.03 for Fenerbahçe.