10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe Süper Lig prediction & result

Rize
Referee: Ozan Ergun, Türkiye
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Rizespor 0-3 Fenerbahçe.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Rizespor, 23% draw, 53% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 4.17, 4.35 and 1.89.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fenerbahçe at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rizespor0%Draw1%Fenerbahçe99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽M. Asensioassist: K. Akturkoglu
59'
🔁M. Asensioout: I. Kahveci
🔁A. Kutucuout: I. Doicaru
66'
🔁Q. Laciout: C. Bozdogan
72'
🔁A. Mebudeout: E. Bulut
72'
80'
🔁V. Muriqiout: R. Lukaku
80'
🔁M. Greenwoodout: O. Aydin
🔁T. Antalyaliout: G. Borrelli
82'
83'
⚽I. Kahveciassist: O. Aydin
87'
⚽O. Aydinassist: R. Lukaku
88'
🔁K. Akturkogluout: K. Peprah
88'
🔁M. Guendouziout: I. Yuksek

Match stats — Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe

50%Possession50%
19Shots13
5On target5
2Corners5
1.52xG0.96

Goals against chances

Rizespor0 from 1.52 xGless than the chances were worth
Fenerbahçe3 from 0.96 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rizespor 4-1-4-1
  • 75Y. FofanaG
  • 54M. PalaD
  • 4A. MocsiD
  • 93M. SagnanD
  • 17Z. ArissD
  • 14T. AntalyaliM
  • 11A. MebudeM
  • 10I. OlawoyinM
  • 20Q. LaciM
  • 23A. KutucuM
  • 9A. SoweF
Substitutes
  • 30Z. GorgenG
  • 5T. T. SanucD
  • 37T. SahinD
  • 21S. BakayokoD
  • 19U. ErdemD
  • 6M. DiakiteM
  • 70C. BozdoganM
  • 79I. DoicaruF
  • 29G. BorrelliF
Coach: Recep Ucar
Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1
  • 31EdersonG
  • 27N. SemedoD
  • 37M. SkriniarD
  • 15N. AkeD
  • 3A. BrownD
  • 91N. KanteM
  • 6M. GuendouziM
  • 11M. GreenwoodM
  • 10M. AsensioM
  • 7K. AkturkogluM
  • 19V. MuriqiF
Substitutes
  • 34M. GunokG
  • 21K. PeprahD
  • 22L. MercanD
  • 8M. YandasM
  • 5I. YuksekM
  • 28B. ElmazM
  • 9R. LukakuF
  • 17I. KahveciM
  • 70O. AydinF
Coach: Ismail Kartal

Form going into Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe

Rizespor

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Göztepe20 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Eyüpspor12 September 2026
  • L0-1Alanyaspor7 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Gaziantep FK29 August 2026
  • L0-2Samsunspor22 August 2026

Fenerbahçe

All competitions we cover

  • W8-0Eyüpspor20 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Gaziantep FK14 September 2026
  • D1-1AS Roma10 September 2026
  • L1-2Beşiktaş5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Samsunspor30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Rizespor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Fenerbahçe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Rizespor114251316-314
6Fenerbahçe116142910+1919

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe

  • 17 April 2026Fenerbahçe 2–2 RizesporSüper Lig
  • 23 November 2025Rizespor 2–5 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
  • 2 February 2025Fenerbahçe 3–2 RizesporSüper Lig
  • 25 August 2024Rizespor 0–5 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
  • 17 February 2024Rizespor 1–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig

The full Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe record →

Leading scorers: Rizespor and Fenerbahçe

Rizespor

GoalsAssists

  • A. Sowe40

Fenerbahçe

GoalsAssists

  • V. Muriqi71
  • M. Greenwood62
  • İ. Kahveci53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fenerbahçe won 3–0 at Rizespor. The model had made a win for Fenerbahçe its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: M. Asensio 12' for Fenerbahçe, I. Kahveci 83' for Fenerbahçe, O. Aydin 87' for Fenerbahçe. On expected goals it finished 1.52–0.96.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rizespor a 4.9% chance to finish in the top four: 6.9% after a win, 4.5% after a draw, 3.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.7%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.

For Fenerbahçe the question was the chance to win the league, 29.1% going in: 32.3% after a win, 26.5% after a draw, 21.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.3%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rizespor v Fenerbahçe has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 26% / 26% / 48% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 24% / 23% / 53%: the biggest move is Fenerbahçe's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Rizespor win24%▼ −2
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. Fenerbahçe win53%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.