Fulham
vs
Crystal Palace
League Cup prediction
Our model says: Fulham 1–0 Crystal Palace
The model makes it 43% Fulham, 29% draw, 28% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fulham 1.46, Crystal Palace 1.08.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Fulham have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Ipswich.
- Crystal Palace have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Nottingham Forest.
- Last 6 meetings: Crystal Palace 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Fulham 2–3 Crystal Palace.
Chance to go through
League Cup Round of 16 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Fulham45%
- Level after ninety minutes28%
- Crystal Palace27%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Carabao Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fulham at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Fulham
- L1-2away to Ipswich10 October 2026
- D1-1Manchester United20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Liverpool12 September 2026
- L2-3Crystal Palace5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sunderland30 August 2026
Crystal Palace
- W3-1Nottingham Forest11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Leeds20 September 2026
- W4-0Lech Poznan17 September 2026
- L2-3Ipswich12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham5 September 2026
What these results say
- Fulham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fulham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crystal Palace scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Crystal Palace had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Fulham vs Crystal Palace
- 5 September 2026Fulham 2–3 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 7 August 2026Fulham 1–2 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs
- 1 January 2026Crystal Palace 1–1 FulhamPremier League
- 7 December 2025Fulham 1–2 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 29 March 2025Fulham 0–3 Crystal PalaceFA Cup
- 22 February 2025Fulham 0–2 Crystal PalacePremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fulham carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.79 for Crystal Palace. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Fulham and 1.08 for Crystal Palace. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fulham rate 0.83 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Crystal Palace rate 0.96 and 1.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fulham the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Fulham against 1.08 for Crystal Palace. Fulham's attack/defence rating is 0.83/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.08 for Crystal Palace.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fulham at home · Crystal Palace away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Fulham 6, Crystal Palace 6.
Fulham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Crystal Palace have let in 4 there.
Crystal Palace score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Fulham have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Fulham
- at Aston Villa31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Newcastle7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- at Manchester City21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 12%
- vs Bournemouth29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Crystal Palace
- at Tottenham31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.