Fluminense
vs
Internacional
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Fluminense 1–0 Internacional
The model makes it 56% Fluminense, 25% draw, 19% Internacional — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Fluminense 1.86, Internacional 0.86.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Fluminense: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Fluminense are 4th on 51 points from 30 games; Internacional are 17th on 32 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Fluminense have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Flamengo.
- Internacional have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Gremio.
- Last 6 meetings: Fluminense 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Internacional 2–0 Fluminense.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fluminense vs Internacional
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fluminense at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fluminense vs Internacional
Fluminense
- L0-1away to Flamengo11 October 2026
- W4-0Coritiba9 October 2026
- W3-1away to Corinthians20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Mineiro12 September 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
Internacional
- D1-1away to Gremio11 October 2026
- W2-1Corinthians7 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chapecoense12 September 2026
- L2-3Santos6 September 2026
What these results say
- Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Internacional conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Internacional scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Internacional.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 51 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Internacional
- 3 May 2026Internacional 2–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 25 October 2025Fluminense 1–0 InternacionalSerie A
- 7 August 2025Fluminense 1–1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil
- 31 July 2025Internacional 1–2 FluminenseCopa Do Brasil
- 1 June 2025Internacional 0–2 FluminenseSerie A
- 8 November 2024Internacional 2–0 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Internacional
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fluminense carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.65 for Internacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Fluminense and 0.86 for Internacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fluminense rate 1.02 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Internacional rate 0.77 and 1.15.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Fluminense against 0.86 for Internacional. Fluminense's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.15 for Internacional.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fluminense at home · Internacional away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Fluminense 30, Internacional 30.
Fluminense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Internacional have let in 6 there.
Internacional score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Fluminense have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fluminense
- at Vitoria6 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
Internacional
- vs Coritiba4 Nov · Serie Awin 50%
- at Vasco da Gama18 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
- vs Vitoria22 Nov · Serie Awin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.