HNK Rijeka
vs
Ilves
The model makes it 74% HNK Rijeka, 17% draw, 9% Ilves — fair odds of 1.35, 5.88 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: HNK Rijeka 2.43, Ilves 0.74.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
HNK Rijeka
- W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
Ilves
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
HNK Rijeka
- D. Adu-Adjei1 goals
- J. Lasickas1 goals
Ilves
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
HNK Rijeka carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.12 for Ilves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): HNK Rijeka W; Ilves D-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.43 goals for HNK Rijeka and 0.74 for Ilves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Rijeka rate 0.60 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ilves rate 0.50 and 2.14.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Rijeka the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.43 expected goals for HNK Rijeka against 0.74 for Ilves. HNK Rijeka's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.14 for Ilves.