6 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

HNK Rijeka vs Ilves UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
Full time1 – 0

Final score: HNK Rijeka 1-0 Ilves.

Before kick-off the model made it 74% HNK Rijeka, 17% draw, 9% Ilves — fair odds of 1.35, 5.88 and 11.11.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Ilves v HNK Rijeka, 13 Aug →

HNK Rijeka went through 2–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Rijeka at 74%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Rijeka98%Draw2%Ilves0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Branko Pavić
11'
⚽N. Jankovicassist: T. Dantas
16'
27'
Jesse Kilo
🔁T. Frukout: S. Vignato
46'
Alfonso Barco
50'
59'
🔁T. Hytonenout: R. Riski
59'
🔁L. Ala-Myllymakiout: O. Multala
🔁D. Adu Adjeiout: J. Puljic
71'
🔁T. Dantasout: J. Lasickas
71'
72'
🔁S. Vaisanenout: T. Miettunen
72'
🔁A. Popovitchout: Y. Sacko
75'
Jardell Kanga
83'
🔁J. Kangaout: E. Tamminen
🔁M. Devetakout: G. Rukavina
84'
90+2'
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba
🔁A. Gojakout: I. Cubelic
90'

Match stats — HNK Rijeka vs Ilves

66%Possession34%
14On target1
9Corners1

Line-ups

HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. TodorovicG
  • 22A. OrecD
  • 45A. MajstorovicD
  • 5A. BarcoM
  • 34M. DevetakD
  • 26T. DantasM
  • 6B. PavicM
  • 14A. GojakM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 4N. JankovicM
  • 18D. Adu AdjeiF
Substitutes
  • 1V. KovacG
  • 13I. VekicG
  • 3M. ZivkovicD
  • 8I. CubelicM
  • 11G. RukavinaM
  • 15G. GrulovicF
  • 19S. VignatoM
  • 21J. PuljicF
  • 23J. LasickasD
Coach: Matjaz Kek
Ilves 4-3-3
  • 12F. KrkalicG
  • 19G. BambaD
  • 24V. KumpuD
  • 5S. VaisanenD
  • 3M. RaleD
  • 28J. KiloM
  • 14A. PopovitchM
  • 15L. Ala-MyllymakiM
  • 30J. KangaM
  • 9T. HytonenF
  • 13K. WalliusM
Substitutes
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 31R. LeislahtiG
  • 10R. RiskiF
  • 16T. MiettunenD
  • 17S. BaranovM
  • 22O. MultalaM
  • 25S. SuvanneD
  • 33Y. Sacko
  • 36R. AhoD
Coach: Joni Lehtonen

Form going into HNK Rijeka vs Ilves

HNK Rijeka

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Derry City30 July 2026
  • W1-0Derry City23 July 2026

Ilves

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Stjarnan30 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Stjarnan23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and Ilves

HNK Rijeka

GoalsAssists

  • T. Fruk54
  • D. Adu-Adjei43
  • S. Vignato41

Ilves

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Rijeka beat Ilves 1–0. The model had made a win for HNK Rijeka its most likely outcome, at 74%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: N. Jankovic 16' for HNK Rijeka.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.