Ujpest
vs
Nyiregyhaza
NB I prediction
Our model says: Ujpest 2–1 Nyiregyhaza
The model makes it 53% Ujpest, 23% draw, 24% Nyiregyhaza — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Ujpest 2.19, Nyiregyhaza 1.31.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Ujpest: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ujpest are 4th on 15 points from 9 games; Nyiregyhaza are bottom on 8 points from 10 games — NB I.
- Ujpest are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Budapest Honved.
- Nyiregyhaza have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Budapest Honved.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Nyiregyhaza 2–1 Ujpest.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ujpest vs Nyiregyhaza
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ujpest at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ujpest vs Nyiregyhaza
Ujpest
- D1-1away to Budapest Honved11 October 2026
- W2-1Zalaegerszegi TE20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC6 September 2026
- W3-1Vasas29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Paks21 August 2026
Nyiregyhaza
- L0-1Budapest Honved17 October 2026
- L1-5away to Zalaegerszegi TE11 October 2026
- D1-1Ferencvarosi TC20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Vasas4 September 2026
- D1-1Paks29 August 2026
What these results say
- Ujpest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ujpest scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Ujpest.
- Nyiregyhaza did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Nyiregyhaza conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nyiregyhaza scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 12 | Nyiregyhaza | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ujpest
Chance to finish in the top four · 32% today
Nyiregyhaza
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 82% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ujpest vs Nyiregyhaza
- 24 July 2026Nyiregyhaza 2–1 UjpestNB I
- 17 April 2026Ujpest 7–2 NyiregyhazaNB I
- 24 January 2026Nyiregyhaza 1–1 UjpestNB I
- 26 September 2025Ujpest 2–2 NyiregyhazaNB I
- 16 May 2025Ujpest 2–2 NyiregyhazaNB I
- 22 February 2025Nyiregyhaza 0–0 UjpestNB I
Leading scorers: Ujpest and Nyiregyhaza
Ujpest
GoalsAssists
- A. Matko53
- E. Amenyido34
- G. Vlijter32
Nyiregyhaza
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ujpest carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.28 for Nyiregyhaza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.19 goals for Ujpest and 1.31 for Nyiregyhaza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ujpest rate 0.74 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nyiregyhaza rate 0.57 and 1.78.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ujpest a 3.1% chance of the title and Nyiregyhaza 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ujpest the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Ujpest against 1.31 for Nyiregyhaza. Ujpest's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.78 for Nyiregyhaza.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ujpest at home · Nyiregyhaza away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Ujpest 9, Nyiregyhaza 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ujpest
- at Debreceni VSC7 Nov · NB Iwin 33%
- vs Kisvarda FC21 Nov · NB Iwin 46%
- at MTK Budapest28 Nov · NB Iwin 37%
Nyiregyhaza
- vs Gyori ETO FC7 Nov · NB Iwin 22%
- vs Debreceni VSC21 Nov · NB Iwin 32%
- at Kisvarda FC28 Nov · NB Iwin 28%
- vs MTK Budapest5 Dec · NB Iwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.