Budapest Honved
vs
Kisvarda FC
NB I prediction
Our model says: Budapest Honved 1–0 Kisvarda FC
The model makes it 42% Budapest Honved, 29% draw, 29% Kisvarda FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Budapest Honved 1.40, Kisvarda FC 1.07.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Budapest Honved are 9th on 10 points from 9 games; Kisvarda FC are 8th on 10 points from 9 games — NB I.
- Budapest Honved have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Nyiregyhaza.
- Kisvarda FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Vasas.
- Last 6 meetings: Budapest Honved 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Kisvarda FC 1–1 Budapest Honved.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Budapest Honved vs Kisvarda FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Budapest Honved at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Budapest Honved vs Kisvarda FC
Budapest Honved
- W1-0away to Nyiregyhaza17 October 2026
- D1-1Ujpest11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Puskas Academy18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Gyori ETO FC6 September 2026
- W1-0Zalaegerszegi TE29 August 2026
Kisvarda FC
- D1-1away to Vasas10 October 2026
- L0-1Paks19 September 2026
- W2-1away to MTK Budapest5 September 2026
- D1-1Gyori ETO FC30 August 2026
- D0-0Debreceni VSC23 August 2026
What these results say
- Budapest Honved scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kisvarda FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kisvarda FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kisvarda FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Budapest Honved | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Budapest Honved
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 37% today
Kisvarda FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 50% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Budapest Honved vs Kisvarda FC
- 25 July 2026Kisvarda FC 1–1 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 27 June 2026Budapest Honved 2–1 Kisvarda FCFriendlies Clubs
- 18 May 2025Budapest Honved 3–0 Kisvarda FCNB II
- 25 November 2024Kisvarda FC 1–1 Budapest HonvedNB II
- 29 April 2023Kisvarda FC 2–2 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 4 February 2023Budapest Honved 1–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
Leading scorers: Budapest Honved and Kisvarda FC
Budapest Honved
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Kisvarda FC
GoalsAssists
- C. Herc30
- M. Matanović22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Budapest Honved carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.37 for Kisvarda FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Budapest Honved and 1.07 for Kisvarda FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Budapest Honved rate 0.63 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kisvarda FC rate 0.49 and 1.34.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kisvarda FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Budapest Honved a 0.5% chance of the title and Kisvarda FC 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Budapest Honved the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Budapest Honved against 1.07 for Kisvarda FC. Budapest Honved's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.34 for Kisvarda FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Budapest Honved at home · Kisvarda FC away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Budapest Honved 9, Kisvarda FC 9.
Kisvarda FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Budapest Honved have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Budapest Honved
- at MTK Budapest7 Nov · NB Iwin 33%
- vs Paks21 Nov · NB Iwin 37%
- at Vasas28 Nov · NB Iwin 26%
- at Ferencvarosi TC2 Dec · NB Iwin 20%
Kisvarda FC
- vs Puskas Academy7 Nov · NB Iwin 30%
- at Ujpest21 Nov · NB Iwin 27%
- vs Nyiregyhaza28 Nov · NB Iwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.