Kisvarda FC
vs
Ferencvarosi TC
NB I prediction
Our model says: Kisvarda FC 0–1 Ferencvarosi TC
The model makes it 26% Kisvarda FC, 30% draw, 44% Ferencvarosi TC — fair odds of 3.85, 3.33 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Kisvarda FC 0.84, Ferencvarosi TC 1.46.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Kisvarda FC are 8th on 9 points from 8 games; Ferencvarosi TC are 5th on 12 points from 7 games — NB I.
- Kisvarda FC have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Paks.
- Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Nyiregyhaza.
- Last 6 meetings: Ferencvarosi TC 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Kisvarda FC 1–1 Ferencvarosi TC.
All Hungarian NB I predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kisvarda FC vs Ferencvarosi TC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ferencvarosi TC at 44% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kisvarda FC vs Ferencvarosi TC
Kisvarda FC
- L0-1Paks19 September 2026
- W2-1away to MTK Budapest5 September 2026
- D1-1Gyori ETO FC30 August 2026
- D0-0Debreceni VSC23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza15 August 2026
Ferencvarosi TC
- D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza20 September 2026
- D2-2Ujpest6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Gyori ETO FC3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Puskas Academy30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Zalaegerszegi TE17 August 2026
What these results say
- Kisvarda FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kisvarda FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Ferencvarosi TC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kisvarda FC vs Ferencvarosi TC
- 22 March 2026Kisvarda FC 1–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 7 December 2025Ferencvarosi TC 3–0 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 4 December 2025Kisvarda FC 0–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 20 April 2024Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 3 February 2024Kisvarda FC 1–3 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 24 September 2023Ferencvarosi TC 1–0 Kisvarda FCNB I
Leading scorers: Kisvarda FC and Ferencvarosi TC
Kisvarda FC
- C. Herc3 goals
- M. Matanović2 goals2 assists
Ferencvarosi TC
- B. Yusuf2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kisvarda FC carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.7 for Ferencvarosi TC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.84 goals for Kisvarda FC and 1.46 for Ferencvarosi TC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kisvarda FC rate 0.48 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ferencvarosi TC rate 0.77 and 1.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kisvarda FC a 0.2% chance of the title and Ferencvarosi TC 35.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ferencvarosi TC the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Kisvarda FC against 1.46 for Ferencvarosi TC. Kisvarda FC's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.05 for Ferencvarosi TC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kisvarda FC at home · Ferencvarosi TC away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Kisvarda FC 8, Ferencvarosi TC 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kisvarda FC
- at Zalaegerszegi TE24 Oct · NB Iwin 32%
- at Budapest Honved31 Oct · NB Iwin 31%
- vs Puskas Academy7 Nov · NB Iwin 32%
- at Ujpest21 Nov · NB Iwin 28%
Ferencvarosi TC
- vs Torreense22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 45%
- vs MTK Budapest24 Oct · NB Iwin 52%
- vs Paks31 Oct · NB Iwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.