26 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Lyon vs Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Lyon 1-2 Fenerbahçe.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Lyon, 21% draw, 35% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 2.27, 4.76 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Champions League Play-offs tie. First leg: Fenerbahçe 1–1 Lyon (18 Aug) →

Fenerbahçe went through 3–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Lyon at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lyon0%Draw6%Fenerbahçe94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
⚽V. Muriqi
28'
⚽A. Brownassist: M. Greenwood
32'
Milan Škriniar
Loïs Openda
51'
⚽M. Fofanaassist: A. Maitland-Niles
61'
🔁A. Maitland-Nilesout: Z. Athekame
62'
🔁E. Nuamahout: K. Boudache
62'
•Loïs Openda
65'
67'
🔁Taliscaout: I. Yuksek
•Kaïl Boudache
71'
🔁T. Tessmannout: P. Sulc
76'
76'
🔁O. Aydinout: D. Nene
80'
🔁V. Muriqiout: R. Lukaku
80'
🔁M. Greenwoodout: I. Kahveci
🔁Abner Viniciusout: N. Tagliafico
86'
🔁T. Mortonout: M. Bidstrup
86'
90+5'
Dorgeles Nene
90+4'
Mattéo Guendouzi

Match stats — Lyon vs Fenerbahçe

59%Possession41%
17Shots16
6On target7
5Corners7

Line-ups

Lyon 4-3-3
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 98A. Maitland-NilesD
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 19M. NiakhateD
  • 16Abner ViniciusD
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 7E. NuamahF
  • 17L. OpendaF
  • 11M. FofanaF
Substitutes
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 22C. MataD
  • 13Z. AthekameD
  • 3N. TagliaficoD
  • 20F. BacherD
  • 2M. BidstrupM
  • 10P. SulcM
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 39M. de CarvalhoM
Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1
  • 31EdersonG
  • 27N. SemedoD
  • 37M. SkriniarD
  • 15N. AkeD
  • 3A. BrownD
  • 91N. KanteM
  • 6M. GuendouziM
  • 11M. GreenwoodM
  • 94TaliscaM
  • 70O. AydinM
  • 19V. MuriqiF
Substitutes
  • 13T. CetinG
  • 75K. SapazG
  • 18M. MuldurD
  • 14Y. E. DemirD
  • 22L. MercanD
  • 5I. YuksekM
  • 28B. ElmazM
  • 9R. LukakuF
  • 17I. KahveciM
Coach: Ismail Kartal

Form going into Lyon vs Fenerbahçe

Lyon

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Fenerbahçe18 August 2026
  • W3-0Sparta Praha11 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Sparta Praha4 August 2026

Fenerbahçe

All competitions we cover

  • W4-2Konyaspor22 August 2026
  • D1-1Lyon18 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.15 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Sturm Graz11 August 2026
  • W2-0Sturm Graz5 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lyon scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Fenerbahçe scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Lyon vs Fenerbahçe

  • 23 January 2025Fenerbahçe 0–0 LyonUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Lyon and Fenerbahçe

Lyon

No leading scorers listed yet.

Fenerbahçe

GoalsAssists

  • M. Greenwood42
  • Talisca40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fenerbahçe won 2–1 at Lyon. The model had leaned towards a win for Lyon at 44% and given a win for Fenerbahçe 35%. The goals: V. Muriqi 24' for Fenerbahçe, A. Brown 28' for Fenerbahçe, M. Fofana 61' for Lyon.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.