Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Farul Constanta 3-1 Petrolul Ploiesti.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Farul Constanta, 29% draw, 28% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Farul Constanta at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12R. MunteanuG
- 24S. BouzamouchaD
- 17I. LarieD
- 6V. DicanD
- 8I. VînăM
- 23T. NjikéM
- 70M. AhlinviM
- 11C. GaneaM
- 10E. SylvestreF
- 9M. HyseniF
- 20E. RădăslăvescuF
- 27Hassane Rachid Seyd Sabour TraoréD
- 2D. MafteiD
- 99Răzvan MarinceanF
- 80N. PopescuM
- 71R. TănasăF
- 3V. ȚicuD
- 33João FerreiraD
- 30N. GrigoryanF
- 29A. GoncearF
- 38L. ZimaG
- 22M. ȚuțuD
- 4P. PappD
- 71B. MalulaD
- 2A. DumitrescuD
- 8L. VegaM
- 20S. HancaM
- 19Léo TeixeiraM
- 10A. BranM
- 7Rodrigo MartinsM
- 9D. NlunduluF
- 66T. CăpușăD
- 18C. HüseynovD
- 29K. LudewigD
- 21David IonutM
- 24Adam ZaianD
- 28M. CostacheM
- 12Ș. GeorgescuG
- 80M. IonițăM
- 99O. DeleM
Form going into Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Farul Constanta
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Dinamo Bucuresti20 September 2026
- W4-2Uta Arad11 September 2026
- D0-0away to CFR 1907 Cluj4 September 2026
- D0-0FC Botosani30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe23 August 2026
Petrolul Ploiesti
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Csikszereda21 September 2026
- D2-2away to FCSB14 September 2026
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Universitatea Cluj28 August 2026
- L0-2Rapid21 August 2026
What these results say
- Farul Constanta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Petrolul Ploiesti scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 22 | +2 | 24 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti
- 15 March 2026Farul Constanta 2–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 25 January 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 1 September 2025Farul Constanta 2–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 28 April 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 3 February 2025Farul Constanta 2–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
Leading scorers: Farul Constanta and Petrolul Ploiesti
Farul Constanta
GoalsAssists
- M. Ahlinvi71
- E. Rădăslăvescu53
Petrolul Ploiesti
GoalsAssists
- A. Bran43
- Rodrigo Martins42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Farul Constanta beat Petrolul Ploiesti 3–1. The model had made a win for Farul Constanta its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Cristian Ganea 5' for Farul Constanta, Matteo Ahlinvi 22' for Farul Constanta, Alejandro Bran 33' for Petrolul Ploiesti, Răzvan Marincean 89' for Farul Constanta. On expected goals it finished 1.14–1.03.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Farul Constanta a 6.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.1% after a win, 7.5% after a draw, 10.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.1%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.
For Petrolul Ploiesti the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.6% going in: 22.7% after a win, 15.8% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.1%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Farul Constanta v Petrolul Ploiesti has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Farul Constanta's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Farul Constanta win43%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Petrolul Ploiesti win28%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.