Farul Constanta
vs
Petrolul Ploiesti
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Farul Constanta 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti
The model makes it 41% Farul Constanta, 30% draw, 29% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Farul Constanta 1.43, Petrolul Ploiesti 1.03.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Farul Constanta at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Farul Constanta
- L0-4away to Dinamo Bucuresti20 September 2026
- W4-2Uta Arad11 September 2026
- D0-0away to CFR 1907 Cluj4 September 2026
- D0-0FC Botosani30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe23 August 2026
Petrolul Ploiesti
- W2-0Csikszereda21 September 2026
- D2-2away to FCSB14 September 2026
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Universitatea Cluj28 August 2026
- L0-2Rapid21 August 2026
What these results say
- Farul Constanta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Petrolul Ploiesti scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti
- 15 March 2026Farul Constanta 2–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 25 January 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 1 September 2025Farul Constanta 2–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 28 April 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 3 February 2025Farul Constanta 2–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 14 September 2024Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
Leading scorers: Farul Constanta and Petrolul Ploiesti
Farul Constanta
- E. Rădăslăvescu5 goals2 assists
- M. Ahlinvi3 goals1 assists
- Iustin Doicaru3 goals1 assists
Petrolul Ploiesti
- B. Malula3 goals
- D. Nlundulu3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Farul Constanta carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.33 for Petrolul Ploiesti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Farul Constanta and 1.03 for Petrolul Ploiesti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Farul Constanta rate 0.61 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Petrolul Ploiesti rate 0.55 and 1.56.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Petrolul Ploiesti, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Farul Constanta a 0.2% chance of the title and Petrolul Ploiesti 2.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Farul Constanta the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Farul Constanta against 1.03 for Petrolul Ploiesti. Farul Constanta's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.56 for Petrolul Ploiesti.